Containing pandemic influenza at the source
Containing pandemic influenza at the source
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1115717
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发表时间：
2005-08-12
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Halloran, ME
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Longini, IM;Nizam, A;Halloran, ME
高致病性甲型禽流感（H5N1 亚型）有可能引发一场具有潜在破坏性的人类大流行。我们使用东南亚农村的随机流感模拟模型来研究有针对性的抗病毒预防、检疫和预疫苗接种在源头上遏制新出现的流感病毒株的有效性。如果基本再生数 (R-o) 低于 1.60，我们的模拟表明，使用靶向抗病毒药物做好准备的应对措施很有可能遏制疾病。在这种情况下，储备 10 万到 100 万个疗程的抗病毒药物用于治疗和预防就足够了。如果发生预接种，则进行有针对性的抗病毒预防。可有效抑制 R-o 高达 2.1 的菌株。针对性抗病毒预防、预接种和检疫的组合可能包含 R-o 高达 2.4 的菌株。
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (R-o) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease, In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis. could be effective for containing strains with an R-o as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an R-o as high as 2.4.