Polar Ocean Observations: A Critical Gap in the Observing System and Its Effect on Environmental Predictions From Hours to a Season
Polar Ocean Observations: A Critical Gap in the Observing System and Its Effect on Environmental Predictions From Hours to a Season
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DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2019.00429
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发表时间：
2019-08
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Gregory C. Smith;R. Allard;M. Babin;Laurent Bertino;M. Chevallier;G. Corlett;Julia W. Crout;F. Davidson;B. Delille;S. Gille;D. Hebert;P. Hyder;J. Intrieri;José Lagunas;G. Larnicol;T. Kaminski;B. Kater;F. Kauker;C. Marec;M. Mazloff;E. Metzger;C. Mordy;A. O'carroll;S. Olsen;M. Phelps;P. Posey;P. Prandi;E. Rehm;P. Reid;I. Rigor;S. Sandven;M. Shupe;S. Swart;O. Smedstad;A. Solomon;A. Storto;P. Thibaut;J. Toole;K. Wood;Jiping Xie;Qinghua Yang
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文献类型：
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作者：
Gregory C. Smith;R. Allard;M. Babin;Laurent Bertino;M. Chevallier;G. Corlett;Julia W. Crout;F. Davidson;B. Delille;S. Gille;D. Hebert;P. Hyder;J. Intrieri;José Lagunas;G. Larnicol;T. Kaminski;B. Kater;F. Kauker;C. Marec;M. Mazloff;E. Metzger;C. Mordy;A. O'carroll;S. Olsen;M. Phelps;P. Posey;P. Prandi;E. Rehm;P. Reid;I. Rigor;S. Sandven;M. Shupe;S. Swart;O. Smedstad;A. Solomon;A. Storto;P. Thibaut;J. Toole;K. Wood;Jiping Xie;Qinghua Yang
在北极和南极极地，对业务海洋学预报的需求日益增长。在前者，这是由冰盖减少以及海上交通和海洋资源开发的增加推动的。南极的海洋预报也很重要，这既是为了支持南极作业，也是为了帮助阐明管理海冰和冰架稳定性的过程。然而，与全球海洋的大多数地区相比，极地地区的海洋观测系统存在很大差距，阻碍了海洋和海冰预报的可靠性。这一差距也可以从海洋和海冰对极地区域的重新分析的扩散中看出，这提供了对其不确定性的估计。极地预报可靠性降低可能影响各种应用的质量，包括搜救、结合数值天气和季节预报、历史重建(重新分析)、水产养殖和环境管理，包括环境应急反应。在这里，我们概述了极地地区现有的近实时海洋观测工作的现状，讨论了差距，并探索了未来的前景。具体建议包括再次呼吁开放获取数据，特别是实时数据，以此作为改善海冰和天气预报以及其他环境预报需求的关键能力。还需要作出专门努力，利用作为极地预测年(极地预测年；2017-2019年)一部分所作的额外观测，为最佳观测系统设计提供信息。为了向ARGO网络提供极地延伸，建议在冰盖地区部署和支持冰载海冰和上层海洋观测浮标网络，并在季节性冰盖海域部署和支持自主剖面浮标和滑翔机(可能具有冰探测能力)。最后，为了改进耦合环境预报，还需要更多的努力来更好地测量极地地区的地表交换并将其参数化。
There is a growing need for operational oceanographic predictions in both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. In the former, this is driven by a declining ice cover accompanied by an increase in maritime traffic and exploitation of marine resources. Oceanographic predictions in the Antarctic are also important, both to support Antarctic operations and also to help elucidate processes governing sea ice and ice shelf stability. However, a significant gap exists in the ocean observing system in polar regions, compared to most areas of the global ocean, hindering the reliability of ocean and sea ice forecasts. This gap can also be seen from the spread in ocean and sea ice reanalyses for polar regions which provide an estimate of their uncertainty. The reduced reliability of polar predictions may affect the quality of various applications including search and rescue, coupling with numerical weather and seasonal predictions, historical reconstructions (reanalysis), aquaculture and environmental management including environmental emergency response. Here, we outline the status of existing near-real time ocean observational efforts in polar regions, discuss gaps, and explore perspectives for the future. Specific recommendations include a renewed call for open access to data, especially real-time data, as a critical capability for improved sea ice and weather forecasting and other environmental prediction needs. Dedicated efforts are also needed to make use of additional observations made as part of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP; 2017–2019) to inform optimal observing system design. To provide a polar extension to the Argo network, it is recommended that a network of ice-borne sea ice and upper-ocean observing buoys be deployed and supported operationally in ice-covered areas together with autonomous profiling floats and gliders (potentially with ice detection capability) in seasonally ice covered seas. Finally, additional efforts to better measure and parameterize surface exchanges in polar regions are much needed to improve coupled environmental prediction.