Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Precipitation over Asia: Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Perspective
Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Precipitation over Asia: Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Perspective
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-16-0206.1
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发表时间：
2017-03
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Sun‐Seon Lee;J. Moon;Bin Wang;Hae-Jeong Kim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sun‐Seon Lee;J. Moon;Bin Wang;Hae-Jeong Kim
摘要北半球夏季季内涛动（BSISO）是热带气候系统中最突出的模态之一。为了更好地进行极端降水的亚季节预测，研究了亚洲地区BSISO活动与极端降水事件（日降水量超过90百分位的日数）的关系，特别是极端降水发生对BSISO逐月降水异常型（相位）和强度（幅值）的依赖关系。在给定的区域和月份，极端降水发生的概率根据BSISO相位变化从小于10%到大于40% ~ 50%，当BSISO振幅较大时，极端降水发生的概率往往较高。由BSISO活动估算的极端降水概率一般在海洋高于陆地。然而，在一些陆地区域，极端降水的发生明显受到BSISO活动的调节。5月，当BS…时，中国东南部极端降水概率可达30% ~ 40%左右。
AbstractThe boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is one of the most prominent modes in the tropical climate system. For better subseasonal prediction of extreme precipitation the relationship between BSISO activity and extreme precipitation events (days with daily precipitation exceeding the local 90th percentile) over Asia is investigated, especially the dependence of extreme precipitation occurrence on BSISO precipitation anomaly pattern (phase) and intensity (amplitude) in each month. At a given area and month, the probability of extreme precipitation changes from less than 10% to over 40%–50% according to BSISO phases, and it tends to be high when BSISO amplitude is large. The extreme precipitation probability estimated by BSISO activity is generally higher over ocean than over land. Over some land regions, however, occurrence of extreme precipitation is notably modulated by BSISO activity. In May, the extreme precipitation probability over southeastern China can reach about 30%–40% when BS...