Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains
Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains
复制标题
经济危机与全球供应链
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1588946
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
David Khoudour
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Bénassy;Yvan Decreux;L. Fontagné;David Khoudour
2008年最后一个季度和2009年第一季度，世界贸易因经济危机而急剧下降，这一点引起了广泛关注。2009年全年的预测令人震惊，并提出了几种解释。特别是，除了信贷紧缩和全球需求下降之外，有人认为，由于全球化和供应链的分散，世界贸易将不可避免地超过世界GDP的冲击。我们使用简单的会计计算和模拟的多地区，多部门的可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，它明确的模型内和部门之间的投入产出关系，这一观点提出质疑。使用CGE的MINUS，我们问，最新的GDP变化预测，加上需求构成的扭曲（对资本货物的损害），贸易成本下降趋势的停止和油价的暴跌，是否可以复制一个非常类似的乘数效应对世界贸易目前正在经历的。首先，我们发现，当贸易流量被世界GDP价格通缩时，2009年贸易下降的数量级为8.9%。然而，当贸易流量被模型计算出的特定部门贸易价格所缩减时，世界贸易的下降幅度要有限得多（-2.4%）。因此，模型预测的贸易下降很大一部分来自相对价格效应。其次，虽然这一降幅仍高于IMF在2009年4月预测的全球GDP下降-1.3%，但如果使用当前汇率（而不是购买力平价权重）来汇总GDP，即使这种放大效应也会消失。第三，虽然我们的论文并不支持全球化和供应链分散导致贸易系统性过度的假设，但信贷短缺等其他因素似乎在短期内一定起到了一定的作用，以解释世界贸易的急剧下降。
Much attention has been paid to the sharp fall in world trade associated with the economic crisis during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Alarming forecasts have been published for the whole year of 2009 and several explanations have been offered. In particular, beyond the credit crunch and the global drop in demand, it has been argued that, due to globalisation and the fragmentation of supply chains, world trade will inevitably overshoot the shock in world GDP. We contest this view using both simple accounting calculations and a simulation of the multi-region, multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which explicitly models input-output relations within and between sectors. Using the CGE MIRAGE, we ask whether the most recent forecasts of GDP change, together with a twist in the composition of demand (to the detriment of capital goods), a halt in the trend towards the reduction in trade costs and a collapse in the oil price can replicate a very similar multiplier effect on world trade to that currently being experienced. Firstly, we find that, when trade flows are deflated by the price of the world GDP, the order of magnitude for trade decline in 2009 is 8.9 percent in our exercise. However, when trade flows are deflated by the sector-specific trade prices computed by the model, the drop in world trade is much more limited (-2.4 percent). Hence a large part of the fall in trade predicted by the model comes from a relative price effect. Secondly, while this fall is still more than the –1.3% drop in world GDP forecast by the IMF in April 2009, even this magnification effect disappears when GDPs are aggregated using current exchange rates, which is the appropriate reference, rather than PPP weights. Thirdly, while, our paper does not support the hypothesis of a systematic over-shooting of trade due to globalisation and the fragmentation of supply chains, it seems likely that additional factors such as the credit shortage must have played a role in the short run to explain the sharp fall in world trade.