Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon.
Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0143866
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Giraudoux P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Galanaud P;Galanaud A;Giraudoux P
这项工作旨在将基于地理信息系统的空间分析应用于历史流行病的研究。我们绘制了 15 世纪初三次流行病期间的“鼠疫”死亡人数图，应用库尔多夫方法分析了空间分布，并确定了它们与第戎市社会职业类别分布的关系。我们的研究基于一个数据库，其中包括 50 个年度税务登记册（建立于 1376 年至 1447 年），显示户主的死亡和幸存者、他们的居住地、税收水平和职业。六年内死亡率过高的死者和幸存者的家庭被单独定位在地理参考中世纪地图上，该地图是利用第戎历史中心保存完好的地理优势建立的。我们寻找以共同税收水平（高纳税人，上十分位；低纳税人，最低水平的一半）或专业活动为特征的户主集群，以及不同死亡率的集群。高纳税人以及大多数富有或专业人士优先居住在北部的校内部分，而低纳税人则优先居住在南部。在1400年至1401年和1428年的两次流行期间，死亡率较高的地区出现在北部，而死亡率较低的地区则出现在南部。住房高度集中且靠近食物储备是受影响最严重地区的共同特征，为老鼠拉毛创造了合适的条件。第三次流行病从 1438 年持续到 1440 年，其地理分布有所不同且不断变化：病例最初集中在南门周围、三条河流的交汇处，然后扩散，最终在北郊留下死亡病例。使用选定的历史来源，我们设计了一种可以对中世纪城市流行病进行空间分析的方法。我们的结果与 1400-1401 年流行病是黑死病复发的观点相符。他们认为，1428 年的情况也是如此，而在 1438 年至 1440 年，则涉及一种不同的、可能是水传播的疾病。
This work was designed to adapt Geographical Information System-based spatial analysis to the study of historical epidemics. We mapped "plague" deaths during three epidemics of the early 15th century, analyzed spatial distributions by applying the Kulldorff's method, and determined their relationships with the distribution of socio-professional categories in the city of Dijon. Our study was based on a database including 50 annual tax registers (established from 1376 to 1447) indicating deaths and survivors among the heads of households, their home location, tax level and profession. The households of the deceased and survivors during 6 years with excess mortality were individually located on a georeferenced medieval map, established by taking advantage of the preserved geography of the historical center of Dijon. We searched for clusters of heads of households characterized by shared tax levels (high-tax payers, the upper decile; low-tax payers, the half charged at the minimum level) or professional activities and for clusters of differential mortality. High-tax payers were preferentially in the northern intramural part, as well as most wealthy or specialized professionals, whereas low-tax payers were preferentially in the southern part. During two epidemics, in 1400–1401 and 1428, areas of higher mortality were found in the northern part whereas areas of lower mortality were in the southern one. A high concentration of housing and the proximity to food stocks were common features of the most affected areas, creating suitable conditions for rats to pullulate. A third epidemic, lasting from 1438 to 1440 had a different and evolving geography: cases were initially concentrated around the southern gate, at the confluence of three rivers, they were then diffuse, and ended with residual foci of deaths in the northern suburb. Using a selected historical source, we designed an approach allowing spatial analysis of urban medieval epidemics. Our results fit with the view that the 1400–1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438–1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved.