Climate factors and incidence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus
Climate factors and incidence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jiph.2019.11.011
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Ahmed, Anwar E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Altamimi, Asmaa;Ahmed, Anwar E.
背景：我们对气候因素及其与中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒(MERS-CoV)爆发的联系的了解是不完整的。本研究旨在估计MERS-CoV病例的月发病率，并调查其与气候因素的相关性。方法：研究使用2012年11月1日至2018年12月31日期间从利雅得地区向沙特疾病预防和控制中心报告的每月MERS-CoV病例。整个研究期间的气象情况数据是根据谷歌关于利雅得地区(北纬24.7136度，东经46.6753度)的报告计算的。结果：共有712例MERS冠状病毒病例进入分析，平均年龄为54.2+/-9.9岁，其中超过一半(404例)(56.1%)的病例是在4-8月的5个月期间确诊的。最高峰出现在2015年8月，其次是2014年4月、2017年6月、2015年3月和2016年6月。高温(IRR=1.054，95%CI：1.043-1.065)和高紫外线指数(IRR=1.401，95%CI：1.331-1.475)与MERS-CoV病例的高发病率相关。然而，低相对湿度(IRR=0.956，95%CI：0.948~0.964)和低风速(IRR=0.945，95%CI：0.912~0.979)与MERS冠状病毒病例的发病率较低相关。结论：新型冠状病毒MERS-CoV受气候条件的影响，发病率在4-8月呈上升趋势。高温、高紫外线指数、低风速和低相对湿度是MERS冠状病毒病例增加的原因。必须在医院和社区环境中评估气候因素，并将其纳入指导方针，作为预防和消除感染风险的控制措施的来源。(C)2019年提交人。由爱思唯尔有限公司代表沙特国王本·阿卜杜勒阿齐兹健康科学大学出版。
Background: Our understanding of climate factors and their links to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks is incomplete. This study aimed to estimate the monthly incidence of MERS-CoV cases and to investigate their correlation to climate factors.Methods: The study used aggregated monthly MERS-CoV cases that reported to the Saudi Center for Disease Prevention and Control from the Riyadh Region between November 1, 2012 and December 31, 2018. Data on the meteorological situation throughout the study period was calculated based on Google reports on the Riyadh Region (24.7136 degrees N, 46.6753 degrees E). The Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and its 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each climate factor.Results: A total of 712 MERS-CoV cases were included in the analysis (mean age 54.2 +/- 9.9 years), and more than half (404) (56.1%) MERS-CoV cases were diagnosed during a five-month period from April to August. The highest peak timing positioned in August 2015, followed by April 2014, June 2017, March 2015, and June 2016. High temperatures (IRR = 1.054, 95% CI: 1.043-1.065) and a high ultraviolet index (IRR = 1.401, 95% CI: 1.331-1.475) were correlated with a higher incidence of MERS-CoV cases. However, low relative humidity (IRR = 0.956, 95% CI: 0.948-0.964) and low wind speed (IRR = 0.945, 95% CI: 0.912-0.979) were correlated with a lower incidence of MERS-CoV cases.Conclusion: The novel coronavirus, MERS-CoV, is influenced by climate conditions with increasing incidence between April and August. High temperature, high ultraviolet index, low wind speed, and low relative humidity are contributors to increased MERS-CoV cases. The climate factors must be evaluated in hospitals and community settings and integrated into guidelines to serve as source of control measures to prevent and eliminate the risk of infection. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences.