Simulation modeling and tobacco control: Creating more robust public health policies
Simulation modeling and tobacco control: Creating more robust public health policies
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2005.063974
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Lee, HR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Levy, DT;Bauer, JE;Lee, HR
虽然以往的实证研究表明，烟草控制政策在降低吸烟率方面是有效的，但这些研究在区分政策效果如何取决于其他政策、调整期的长短、政策的实施方式以及所考虑的人口群体方面的效果有限。模拟模型是纯统计方程的替代和补充方法。我们描述了SimSmoke模拟模型，以及我们如何使用它来评估烟草控制政策在一个特定的案例研究。模拟模型不仅对政策预测和规划有用，而且有助于扩大我们对复杂动态社会系统中不同公共卫生政策作用的理解。
Although previous empirical studies have shown that tobacco control policies are effective at reducing smoking rates, such studies have proven of limited effectiveness in distinguishing how the effect of policies depend on the other policies in place, the length of adjustment period, the way the policy is implemented, and the demographic groups considered.An alternative and complementary approach to purely statistical equations is simulation models. We describe the SimSmoke simulation model and how we used it to assess tobacco control policy in a specific case study. Simulation models are not only useful for policy prediction and planning but also may help to broaden our understanding of the role of different public health policies within a complex, dynamic social system.