Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate
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DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50203
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发表时间：
2013-02-27
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Bronaugh, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sillmann, J.;Kharin, V. V.;Bronaugh, D.
本文首先概述了参加耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）的最先进的全球气候模式在模拟气候变化探测和指数专家组（ETCCDI）定义的极端气候指数方面的性能，并将其与上一代模式（CMIP 3）进行了比较。第一次，基于每日温度和降水的指数是在多模式模拟和四个再分析数据集（ERA 40，ERA-Interim，NCEP/NCAR和NCEP-DOE）中采用一致的方法计算的，并可在ETCCDI指数档案网站上获得。我们的分析表明，CMIP 5模式通常能够模拟气候极端及其趋势模式，与网格化观测指数数据集（HadEX 2）相比，这些指数所代表的。与CMIP 3模型相比，CMIP 5模型中几个温度指数的分布有所减少，尽管参与CMIP 5的模型数量较多。CMIP 5集合相对于CMIP 3的一些改进也被发现在降水指数的大小的代表性。我们发现重新分析之间存在很大的差异，这表明它们对极端情况的模拟存在相当大的不确定性。个别模式的整体表现是总结了一个“肖像”图的基础上，均方根误差的模式气候为每个指数和模式相对于四个再分析。这一指标分析表明，中值模型气候学在所有指数方面都优于单个模型，但与基础参考数据集相关的不确定性反映在单个模型的性能指标中。引文：Sillmann，J.，V. V. Kharin，X. Zhang，F. W. Zwiers和D.布罗诺（2013），CMIP 5多模式集合中的气候极端指数：第1部分。当前气候中的模型评估，J. Geophys。剩余大气：118，1716-1733，doi：10.1002/jgrd.50203.
This paper provides a first overview of the performance of state-of-the-art global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), and compares it to that in the previous model generation (CMIP3). For the first time, the indices based on daily temperature and precipitation are calculated with a consistent methodology across multimodel simulations and four reanalysis data sets (ERA40, ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR, and NCEP-DOE) and are made available at the ETCCDI indices archive website. Our analyses show that the CMIP5 models are generally able to simulate climate extremes and their trend patterns as represented by the indices in comparison to a gridded observational indices data set (HadEX2). The spread amongst CMIP5 models for several temperature indices is reduced compared to CMIP3 models, despite the larger number of models participating in CMIP5. Some improvements in the CMIP5 ensemble relative to CMIP3 are also found in the representation of the magnitude of precipitation indices. We find substantial discrepancies between the reanalyses, indicating considerable uncertainties regarding their simulation of extremes. The overall performance of individual models is summarized by a "portrait" diagram based on root-mean-square errors of model climatologies for each index and model relative to four reanalyses. This metric analysis shows that the median model climatology outperforms individual models for all indices, but the uncertainties related to the underlying reference data sets are reflected in the individual model performance metrics. Citation: Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and D. Bronaugh (2013), Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1716-1733, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50203.