The future of hydrology: An evolving science for a changing world
The future of hydrology: An evolving science for a changing world
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DOI：
10.1029/2009wr008906
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发表时间：
2010-05
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Thorsten Wagener;M. Sivapalan;P. Troch;B. McGlynn;C. Harman;H. Gupta;Praveen Kumar;P. Rao;N. Basu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Thorsten Wagener;M. Sivapalan;P. Troch;B. McGlynn;C. Harman;H. Gupta;Praveen Kumar;P. Rao;N. Basu
人类的活动对我们的环境产生了对淡水驱动的服务和自然危害的重要影响，我们对水文科学的态度需要显着改变。开发可持续水资源管理策略并实现人物和环境的长期水安全的必要先决条件需要一个范式转变，在该范式上，对系统行为的预测超出了先前观察到的可变性范围，或者是由于物理（结构）系统特征的重大变化而导致的，以实现这一转变。将系统分析为整体实体，并分析师了解单个系统组件的功能，同时首先在设计良好的设计中运行假设测试框架。基于我们预测环境变化的区域氢化和相关含义的能力。为了作为对水文科学进行必要变化的催化剂，我们呼吁一项长期计划来解决环境变化的区域影响。
Human activities exert global‐scale impacts on our environment with significant implications for freshwater‐driven services and hazards for humans and nature. Our approach to the science of hydrology needs to significantly change so that we can understand and predict these implications. Such an adjustment is a necessary prerequisite for the development of sustainable water resource management strategies and to achieve long‐term water security for people and the environment. Hydrology requires a paradigm shift in which predictions of system behavior that are beyond the range of previously observed variability or that result from significant alterations of physical (structural) system characteristics become the new norm. To achieve this shift, hydrologists must become both synthesists, observing and analyzing the system as a holistic entity, and analysts, understanding the functioning of individual system components, while operating firmly within a well‐designed hypothesis testing framework. Cross‐disciplinary integration must become a primary characteristic of hydrologic research, catalyzing new research and nurturing new educational models. The test of our quantitative understanding across atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere will necessarily lie in new approaches to benchmark our ability to predict the regional hydrologic and connected implications of environmental change. To address these challenges and to serve as a catalyst to bring about the necessary changes to hydrologic science, we call for a long‐term initiative to address the regional implications of environmental change.