Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea
Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea
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威权集会是声誉的阶梯？克里米亚之后普京人气飙升的证据
DOI：
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
H. Hale
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Hale
当国际冲突导致一位威权领导人的支持率飙升时，现有的理论引导我们将这种“团结”视为真诚的偏好改变，是高涨的爱国主义或被吓坏的媒体的产物。这项研究提出了一种不完全真诚的集会理论，更适合于非民主环境，其特征是至少部分反映了由社会合意性担忧驱动的层叠掩饰。识别策略将罕见的具有全国代表性的涨势横跨小组调查与清单实验和计量分析相结合。这表明，在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后支持普京的人中，有四分之三至少是在进行某种形式的掩饰，这种团结是以一种快速的连锁效应发展起来的，社交媒体和电视一起助长了这样一种社会愿望的看法。
When international conflict causes an authoritarian leader’s popularity to soar, extant theories lead us to treat such “rallying” as sincere preference change, the product of surging patriotism or cowed media. This study advances a theory of less-than-fully sincere rallying more appropriate for nondemocratic settings, characterizing it as at least partly reflecting cascading dissembling driven by social desirability concerns. The identification strategy combines a rare nationally representative rally-spanning panel survey with a list experiment and econometric analysis. This establishes that three quarters of those who rallied to Putin after Russia annexed Crimea were engaging in at least some form of dissembling and that this rallying developed as a rapid cascade, with social media joining television in fueling perceptions this was socially desirable.
快与慢的思考：跨时间尺度的优化分解
DOI：
10.1109/cdc.2017.8263834
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
56th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
影响因子：
--
作者：
Goel, Gautam;Chen, Niangjun;Wierman, Adam
通讯作者：
Wierman, Adam
革命停滞：后苏联领域互联网的政治限制
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Oates
通讯作者：
Oates