The impact of climate change on global river flow in HadGEM1 simulations
The impact of climate change on global river flow in HadGEM1 simulations
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DOI：
10.1002/asl.133
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发表时间：
2006-07-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Betts, Richard A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Falloon, Pete D.;Betts, Richard A.
气候变化可能对淡水的供应以及洪水的频率和严重程度产生重大影响，对社会产生重大影响。最新版本的哈德利中心大气环流模型，HadGEM 1，包括TRIP（总径流包括路径）全球河流路由计划。我们分析了HadGEM 1-TRIP模拟的IPCC SRES A1 B和A2情景下全球河流流量的预测变化。与1961-1990年相比，2071-2100年期间全球河流总流量预计将增加4-8%，尽管存在很大的区域差异-例如，北方地区和西非的河流流量大幅增加，而南欧和北非的河流流量大幅减少。河流流量的季节性也可能发生重大变化，例如由于积雪融化提前，北方河流的春季径流高峰提前。在我们的模拟中，发现月最大流量大幅增加，月最小流量减少，尽管月最大流量的增加幅度一般较大。因此，气候变化可能会增加高流量和低流量的发生，尽管高流量的增加可能是主要的。版权所有（C）2006。经HMSO主计长许可复制。出版社：John Wiley & Sons，Ltd
Climate change could have significant impacts on the availability of freshwater and the frequency and severity of flooding, with major implications for society. The latest version of the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model, HadGEM1, includes the TRIP (total runoff including pathways) global river routing scheme. We have analysed the predicted changes in global river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios from HadGEM1-TRIP simulations. Global total river flow was predicted to increase by 4-8% during the 2071-2100 period relative to 1961-1990, although there were large regional differences - for example, large increases in river flow in boreal regions and western Africa, and large decreases in river flow in southern Europe and North Africa. Significant changes in the seasonality of river flow could also occur, such as earlier peaks in spring runoff in boreal rivers due to earlier snow melt. In our simulations, large increases in monthly maximum flow and decreases in monthly minimum flow were found, although the increases in monthly maximum flow were generally larger. Thus, climate change is likely to increase the occurrence of both high and low flows, although the increased high flows could be dominant.. Crown Copyright (C) 2006. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.