Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961-2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China
Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961-2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11430-010-0073-4
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发表时间：
2010-06-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Zhang XiaoWen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao Xin;Ye BaiSheng;Zhang XiaoWen
利用国家气象站的月降水和温度资料、90m分辨率的DEM和中国冰川名录的现代冰川数字矢量图，基于1961年-2006年的月度日模型，估算了塔里木河流域的冰川物质平衡和冰川径流。结果表明，修正后的月度日模型能较好地模拟冰川物质平衡和冰川径流的长期变化，并得到了短期观测数据和文献中其他结果的验证。分析了物质平衡和冰川径流变化的特点和趋势。结果表明，研究区1961年至2006年的年均冰川物质平衡为-139.2 mm/年，46年间的累积物质平衡为-6.4m。1961-2006年整个TRB期间，冰川物质平衡呈现出明显的下降趋势。1961-2006年，TRB冰川年平均径流量为144.16×10(8)m(3)。结果还表明，近46年来，特别是20世纪90年代以来，冰川径流量增加，冰川径流量增加的85.7%来自于冰量减少导致的冰川径流增加。在整个TRB期间，冰川径流量占1961-2006年间河流总流量的41.5%。由于冰川萎缩，TRB的冰川径流对河流流量的影响有所增加。
Using monthly precipitation and temperature data from national meteorological stations, 90 m resolution DEM and a digital vector map of modern glaciers from the Chinese Glacier Inventory, the glacier mass balance and glacier runoff in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), China, were estimated based on a monthly degree-day model for 1961-2006. The results suggest that the modified monthly degree-day model can simulate the long-term changes in glacier mass balance and glacier runoff, which have been confirmed by short-term observation data and other results in literatures. The characteristics and trends of mass balance and glacier runoff variation were analyzed. It was found that the mean annual glacier mass balance during 1961-2006 was -139.2 mm per year and the cumulative mass balance over the 46 year period was -6.4 m in the TRB. The glacier mass balance displayed a clear decreasing trend over the entire TRB during 1961-2006. The average annual glacier runoff in the TRB was 144.16x10(8) m(3) for 1961-2006. The results also show that glacier runoff has increased in the last 46 years, especially since the 1990s with 85.7% of the increased river flow being derived from the increased glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass. Over the entire TRB, glacier runoff accounts for 41.5% of the total river flow during 1961-2006. The impact of glacier runoff on river flow has increased in the TRB as a result of glacier shrinkage.