Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak
Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0806490106
复制
发表时间：
2009-01-20
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Linthicum, Kenneth J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anyamba, Assaf;Chretien, Jean-Paul;Linthicum, Kenneth J.
通过结合卫星测量的海面温度升高和随后的降雨升高以及卫星导出的归一化植被指数差数据，分析了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动相关的气候异常。利用这些气候数据建立的裂谷热风险绘图模型预测了2006年12月至2007年5月期间在非洲之角可能发生人畜裂谷热疫情的地区。这些预测随后得到了昆虫学和流行病学实地调查的证实，这些调查在被确定为有风险的地区进行了病毒活动。疾病活动的准确时空预测，首先发生在索马里南部，然后波及肯尼亚大部分地区，最后影响坦桑尼亚北部，为非洲之角提供了2至6周的预警期，促进了疾病暴发应对和缓解活动。据我们所知，这是对裂谷热暴发的首次前瞻性预测。
El Nino/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.