EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN 1
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN 1
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04240.x
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发表时间：
1999-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Hamlet;D. Lettenmaier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Hamlet;D. Lettenmaier
摘要：作为国家气候变化评估的一部分，来自四个全球气候模式（GCM）的未来气候预测的影响被用来评估未来可能的变化，西北太平洋气候，地表水的响应哥伦比亚河流域，以及哥伦比亚河水库系统，以满足区域水资源目标的能力。从国家气候变化评估提供的一组GCM模拟中选择了哈德利中心（HC）和马克斯普朗克研究所（MPI）的两个代表性GCM模拟。从这些模拟中，准平稳，十年平均温度和降水变化被用来扰动降水和温度数据的历史记录，以创建2025年，2045年和2095年的推断条件。这些扰动记录代表了实验中未来的气候，用于驱动哥伦比亚河的宏观尺度水文模型，分辨率为1/8度。每种情况下模拟的改变的径流，反过来，用来驱动水库模型，从该系统的能力，以满足水资源的目标是确定相对于模拟的水文基本情况（当前气候）。虽然两个GCM模拟显示温度变化的季节模式略有不同，但总体而言，模拟显示2025年流域平均温度上升约1.8-2.1°C，2045年约2.3-2.9°C。HC模拟预测，2095年的年平均气温将上升约4.5°C。对于HC和MPI情景，流域平均冬季降水量的变化范围从-1%到+20%不等，夏季降水量也受到不同程度的影响。这些气候变化导致冬季径流量显著增加，原因是冬季降水量增加和冬季气温升高，从而导致积雪减少。到2025年，3月1日盆地平均雪水当量为基准情况的75%至85%，到2045年为基准情况的55%至65%。到2045年，积雪减少和积雪融化提前，加上初夏蒸散量增加，将导致春季峰值流量提前，并导致4月至9月的径流量减少，范围约为基础情况的75%至90%。在2045年的模拟中，年径流量范围从基本情况的85%到110%。在春季，夏季和初秋期间，径流的这些变化增加了非企业能源生产，灌溉，瞬时流量和娱乐之间的水竞争。洪水控制的有效性是适度减少的大多数情况下检查，和理想的导航条件的蛇一般增强或不变。目前冬季主导的企业能源生产水平仅对MPI 2045模拟产生重大影响。
ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi‐stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro‐scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from ‐1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April‐September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non‐firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter‐dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.