A Definition of Timetable Stability for a Long-term Timetable
A Definition of Timetable Stability for a Long-term Timetable
复制标题
长期时间表的时间表稳定性的定义
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Labermeier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Graffagnino;H. Labermeier
瑞士计划为“地平线2030”投资70亿至120亿瑞士法郎。这些投资必须增加铁路系统的稳定性。为了评估时刻表和基础设施项目的不同组合的稳定性，瑞士联邦铁路公司开发了一种稳定性评估方法。根据计算年度正点预测的经验，通过计算未来时刻表和基础设施项目的每种组合的正点预测来进行稳定性评估。然后，可以使用一组质量目标对每个预测进行比较，这些目标是为53个节点和整个网络定义的。当所有质量目标都达到时，时间表就被确定为稳定的。通过这种方法，时间表的稳定性是可测量的，可以确保在正确的地方进行投资。本文讨论了不同的模型，以评估时间表的稳定性，是常见的，并描述了用于作出决定的方法稳定性投资。最后，将显示校准的结果，这是应用于真实的情况的第一步。
Switzerland aims to invest 7 to 12 billion Swiss francs for the horizon 2030. These investments must bring with them an increase in the stability of the railway system. In order to evaluate the stability of different combinations of timetables and infrastructure projects, a stability assessment method has been developed by the Swiss Federal Railways. Based on the experience of computing the annual punctuality forecast, the evaluation of stability is made by computation of a punctuality forecast for each combination of future timetable and infrastructure project. Each forecast can then be compared using a set of quality goals, which are defined for 53 nodes and for the network as a whole. The timetable is then defined stable when all quality goals are achieved. With this method, the timetable stability is measurable which can ensure that the investment is made at the right place. This paper discusses the different models to assess timetable stability that are commonly found and describes the method used to make decisions on stability investments. To conclude, the results of the calibration, which is the first step applied to a real case, will be shown.