Household Saving over the Life Cycle
Household Saving over the Life Cycle
复制标题
整个生命周期的家庭储蓄
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Oleksandr Movshuk
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oleksandr Movshuk
在本文中，我从六个国家(意大利、日本、台湾、泰国、英国和美国)的微观数据中估计了年龄储蓄情况，以验证家庭是否按照生命周期理论的假设进行储蓄。家庭储蓄水平取决于年龄、队列和年份效应，应用非参数回归模型打破了这些效应之间的完美共线性。在该模型中，假设队列效应为任意光滑函数，并利用惩罚平滑样条法对模型进行估计。估计的储蓄年龄概况显示，大多数受调查国家的老年储蓄都在下降。对于亚洲家庭来说，一个有趣的特征是储蓄的双峰，家庭在40多岁左右的年龄段出现了暂时的下降。
In this paper I estimate age-saving profiles from micro data in six countries (Italy, Japan, Tai-wan, Thailand, the UK, and the US) to verify whether households are saving as postulated by the life-cycle theory. The level of household savings depends on age, cohort and year effects, and the perfect collinearity among these effects is broken by applying a nonparametric regression model. In this model, the cohort effect is assumed to be an arbitrary smooth function, and the model is estimated by the generalized additive model with a penalized smoothing spline approach. Estimated saving-age profiles showed declining savings in the old age for the majority of examined countries. An interesting feature for Asian households was a double hump in savings, with a temporal dip for households for the age bracket at around mid-40s.