Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories.
Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories.
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使用队列吸烟史预测美国死亡率。
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0811809106
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Preston,SamuelH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang,Haidong;Preston,SamuelH
在本文中，我们将最近建立的队列吸烟模式与成人死亡率之间的关系引入到美国的死亡率预测中。特别是，我们将一个代表队列中吸烟强度的变量纳入原始的李-卡特投影模型中。该变量的引入解释了最近年龄/性别死亡率变化模式中的重要异常，并使得能够使用两种性别死亡率变化的共同时间趋势。我们预测了 2004 年至 2034 年间美国 50-84 岁男性和女性的年龄别死亡率。由于吸烟量已经减少或可以可靠预测，因此当将吸烟引入模型时，死亡率预计会下降得更快。
In this paper, we introduce a recently established relationship between cohort smoking patterns and adult mortality into mortality projections for the United States. In particular, we incorporate a variable representing the intensity of smoking within a cohort into the original Lee–Carter projection model. The introduction of this variable accounts for important anomalies in the recent age/sex pattern of mortality change and enables the use of a common temporal trend of mortality change for the 2 sexes. We project age-specific mortality rates for men and women at ages 50–84 between 2004 and 2034 in the United States. Because of reductions in smoking that have already occurred or can be reliably projected, mortality is projected to decline much faster when smoking is introduced into the model.