COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society
COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/0272989x211003081
复制
发表时间：
2021-03-18
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Liu, Shan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee, Serin;Zabinsky, Zelda B.;Liu, Shan
随着新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）大流行持续扩大，政策制定者正在努力平衡非药物干预措施（NPI）的组合，以确保人们的安全并最大限度地减少社会干扰。我们开发并校准了一个基于代理的模拟，以模拟大西雅图地区的COVID-19疫情。该模型模拟了NPI，包括社交距离，口罩使用，学校关闭，检测和接触者追踪，具有可变的依从性和有效性，以确定可以控制病毒在大城市地区传播的最佳NPI组合。研究结果强调了至少75%的人使用口罩的重要性，以放松社交距离和学校关闭措施，同时保持低感染率。在2021年疫苗推广期间，谨慎放宽非营利组织至关重要。
As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.