Loss potentials based on an ensemble forecast: How likely are winter windstorm losses similar to 1990?
Loss potentials based on an ensemble forecast: How likely are winter windstorm losses similar to 1990?
复制标题
基于集合预测的损失潜力：冬季风暴损失与 1990 年类似的可能性有多大？
DOI：
10.1002/asl.891
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
G. Leckebusch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Walz;G. Leckebusch
在本文中，我们调查的可行性和附加值使用季节性后报的ECMWF系统4作为欧洲冬季风暴损失计算的危险事件集。通过客观的风暴跟踪算法，为每个集合成员和每年确定风暴。这些损失是直接从德国、英国、法国和西班牙通过开源自然灾害损失模型CLIMADA获得的风足迹计算的，并与ERA‐Interim的损失进行比较。结果表明，系统4中的损失集合很好地捕捉了再分析的跨年度损失变化。由于超过1,500年的“虚拟现实”风暴数据的后报，极端损失的回报水平可以相当准确地估计。根据系统4，1990年的损失规模（1月、2月、3月和12月，包括著名的风暴达里亚）代表德国20年的事件，而它们代表英国100年的事件。因此，与仅从ERA-Interim计算的回报期相比，回报期要短得多。
In this paper we investigate the feasibility and added value of using the seasonal hindcasts of the ECMWF System 4 as a hazard event set for European winter windstorms damage calculations. The windstorms are identified for every ensemble member and every year by an objective windstorm tracking algorithm. The damages are calculated directly from the obtained wind footprints via the open source natural catastrophe damage model CLIMADA for Germany, the UK, France and Spain and compared to the loss from ERA‐Interim. The results show that the ensembles of losses in System 4 nicely capture the inter‐annual loss variability of the reanalysis. Due to more than 1,500 years of “virtual reality” windstorm data from the hindcasts, the return levels of extreme losses can be estimated fairly accurately. Based on System 4, the losses in the scale of 1990 (January, February, March and December including the prominent windstorm Daria) represent a 20‐year event in Germany whereas they represent a 100‐year event for the UK. Thus, a considerably shorter return period compared to return periods calculated from ERA‐Interim alone.