Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US
Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US
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复杂地形中预计人为变暖的季节性空间模式：美国西部的建模研究
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
M. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Rupp;Sihan Li;P. Mote;K. M. Shell;N. Massey;S. Sparrow;D. Wallom;M. Allen
响应人为温室气体强迫的近地面气温（ΔT）变化预计将表现出空间异质性，因为能量和水分通量受到景观特征的调制，而景观特征在这些空间尺度上也是异质的。检测统计上有意义的异质性需要结合高空间分辨率和大量的模拟。为了研究预计ΔT的空间变异性，我们生成了1985-2014年和2030-2059年美国西部（US）的区域高分辨率（水平25 km）大型集合（每年100个成员）气候模拟，后者具有代表性浓度路径4.5的大气成分浓度。使用大型集合，网格单元尺度温度响应的95%置信区间大小为0.1 °C的量级，而仅来自单个集合成员的置信区间大小为1 °C。在冬季和春季，雪-雪反馈在统计上解释了ΔT的大约一半的空间变异。在某些地方，模拟的温度下降超过0.1，温度每下降0.1，温度变化率为0.3至1.4 °C。在夏季，美国西北部的ΔT型与降水减少型相关。在所有季节中，对流层中低层的直减率变化可能导致美国西部变暖高达0.2 °C的差异。在海岸附近，空间变化的主要控制因素是海洋和陆地之间的差异变暖。
Changes in near surface air temperature (ΔT) in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing are expected to show spatial heterogeneity because energy and moisture fluxes are modulated by features of the landscape that are also heterogeneous at these spatial scales. Detecting statistically meaningful heterogeneity requires a combination of high spatial resolution and a large number of simulations. To investigate spatial variability of projected ΔT, we generated regional, high-resolution (25-km horizontal), large ensemble (100 members per year), climate simulations of western United States (US) for the periods 1985–2014 and 2030–2059, the latter with atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. Using the large ensemble, 95 % confidence interval sizes for grid-cell-scale temperature responses were on the order of 0.1 °C, compared to 1 °C from a single ensemble member only. In both winter and spring, the snow-albedo feedback statistically explains roughly half of the spatial variability in ΔT. Simulated decreases in albedo exceed 0.1 in places, with rates of change in T per 0.1 decrease in albedo ranging from 0.3 to 1.4 °C. In summer, ΔT pattern in the northwest US is correlated with the pattern of decreasing precipitation. In all seasons, changing lapse rates in the low-to-middle troposphere may account for up to 0.2 °C differences in warming across the western US. Near the coast, a major control of spatial variation is the differential warming between sea and land.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Diffenbaugh NS;Ashfaq M;Scherer M
通讯作者：
Scherer M
使用 Weather@home* 的超级集合评估美国西部的区域气候建模工作
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Vickers D
通讯作者：
Vickers D