Hydrometeorological Observations and Modeling of an Extreme Rainfall Event Using WRF and WRF-Hydro during the RELAMPAGO Field Campaign in Argentina
Hydrometeorological Observations and Modeling of an Extreme Rainfall Event Using WRF and WRF-Hydro during the RELAMPAGO Field Campaign in Argentina
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DOI：
10.1175/jhm-d-20-0133.1
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发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Sujan Pal;F. Dominguez;M. E. Dillon;J. Alvarez;C. M. García;S. Nesbitt;D. Gochis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sujan Pal;F. Dominguez;M. E. Dillon;J. Alvarez;C. M. García;S. Nesbitt;D. Gochis
一些地球上最强烈的对流风暴起源于阿根廷的Sierras de科尔多瓦山脉附近。RELAMPAGO实地活动的目标是观测这些强对流风暴及其相关影响。密集观察期（IOP）发生在2018年11月至12月。RELAMPAGO IOP水文气象部分的两个目标是：1）在以前未测量的流域进行水文径流和气象观测; 2）为后报和预报应用建立水文气象建模系统。在IOP期间，我们的团队能够在三个流域构建水位流量曲线，因为水文仪器和人员根据RELAMPAGO天气预报成功部署。我们发现，洪水响应时间在这些河流的位置通常是5和6小时之间的降雨事件的峰值。卫星观测的降水产品IMERG-Final表现出更好的代表性雨量计估计的降水，而IMERG-Early和IMERG-Late有显着的正偏差。建模部分侧重于2018年11月27日发生的极端水文气象事件的48小时模拟。使用天气研究和预报（WRF）大气模型和它的水文组件WRF-Hydro作为一个非耦合的水文模型，我们开发了一个系统后报，确定性预报，和60个成员集合预报初始化与区域尺度大气数据同化。至关重要的是，我们的研究结果强调，使用集合预报与数据同化的径流模拟提供了现实的山洪暴发预测的峰值的时间和幅度。我们从这项工作中获得的发现正在被该地区的水资源管理者所使用。
Some of the most intense convective storms on Earth initiate near the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range in Argentina. The goal of the RELAMPAGO field campaign was to observe these intense convective storms and their associated impacts. The intense observation period (IOP) occurred during November–December 2018. The two goals of the hydrometeorological component of RELAMPAGO IOP were 1) to perform hydrological streamflow and meteorological observations in previously ungauged basins and 2) to build a hydrometeorological modeling system for hindcast and forecast applications. During the IOP, our team was able to construct the stage–discharge curves in three basins, as hydrological instrumentation and personnel were successfully deployed based on RELAMPAGO weather forecasts. We found that the flood response time in these river locations is typically between 5 and 6 h from the peak of the rain event. The satellite-observed rainfall product IMERG-Final showed a better representation of rain gauge–estimated precipitation, while IMERG-Early and IMERG-Late had significant positive bias. The modeling component focuses on the 48-h simulation of an extreme hydrometeorological event that occurred on 27 November 2018. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and its hydrologic component WRF-Hydro as an uncoupled hydrologic model, we developed a system for hindcast, deterministic forecast, and a 60-member ensemble forecast initialized with regional-scale atmospheric data assimilation. Critically, our results highlight that streamflow simulations using the ensemble forecasting with data assimilation provide realistic flash flood forecast in terms of timing and magnitude of the peak. Our findings from this work are being used by the water managers in the region.