As time goes by, the same sentiments apply? Stability of voter satisfaction with democracy during the electoral cycle in 31 countries
As time goes by, the same sentiments apply? Stability of voter satisfaction with democracy during the electoral cycle in 31 countries
复制标题
随着时间的流逝，同样的情感也适用吗？
DOI：
10.1177/1354068820912466
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Hanna Wass
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Miroslav Nemčok;Hanna Wass
民众的同意是民主国家成功和稳定的重要因素。研究一再表明，“选举获胜者”（即为政府政党投票的选民）比反对党的支持者对民主更满意。然而，人们对选举周期中满意度的动态知之甚少：随着时间的推移，获胜者会变得更快乐，失败者会变得更加不满吗？我们通过利用欧洲社会调查（第 1-8 轮）中的采访日期来解决这个问题，以将个人置于选举周期的不同阶段。基于 31 个国家 199 项调查的 199,207 份答复得出的结果表明，如果政治发展是可预测的，那么在各种选举制度的选举周期中，对民主的满意度保持相对稳定。然而，如果政党的行动是不确定的，即政府的更替往往是频繁的、局部的、对所有政党开放的，因此无论胜利者还是失败者都不知道自己的地位相对于国家政治发展有多稳定，他们的满意度往往会随着时间的推移而波动。因此，得出的结论是，较为稳定的西欧民主国家对中欧和东欧难以预测的制度的普遍适用性有限。
Popular consent is an essential element for success and stability of democracies. Research has repeatedly demonstrated that “electoral winners” (i.e. voters casting a ballot for government parties) are more satisfied with democracy than supporters of the opposition parties. However, little is known about the dynamics of satisfaction during the electoral cycle: Do winners become happier and losers even more discontent over time? We approach this question by utilizing an interview date in the European Social Survey (rounds 1–8) to position individuals within the different stages of electoral cycle. The results based on 199,207 responses from 199 surveys in 31 countries suggest that satisfaction with democracy stays relatively stable during the electoral cycle across various electoral systems if the political development is predictable. However, if actions of the parties are uncertain, namely the alternations of governments tend to be frequent, partial, and opened to all parties, and hence neither winners nor losers know how steady their status is with respect to the political development in the country, their satisfaction tend to fluctuate over time. Therefore, the conclusion reached is the more stable West European democracies have limited generalizability to the low-predictable systems in Central and Eastern Europe.