Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes
Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes
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DOI：
10.1029/2018gl080557
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发表时间：
2018-11-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Mishra, Vimal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ali, Haider;Fowler, Hayley J.;Mishra, Vimal
使用全球站为基础的观测降水，近地面气温（SAT），露点温度（DPT），我们发现，极端日降水量和SAT在热带地区之间的负标度关系与温度的低季节性。当使用分箱技术或分位数回归时，不考虑温度的季节性会对热带地区的大多数站点产生负尺度，温度较高与降水量较小的极端相关。去除温度季节性后，我们发现，大多数位置显示出积极的（中位数5.2%/K）缩放与SAT和96%的全球位置表现出积极的（中位数6.1%/K）缩放与DPT。此外，约33%（22%）的位置显示超级C-C标度（高于7%/K）与DPT（SAT）。我们的研究结果表明，气候变暖对极端降水的影响（尤其是在热带地区）可能比以前认为的要大。简明语言摘要极端降水事件在最近几十年中有所增加，并且在气候变暖的情况下可能会增加。了解气温变化对极端降水事件的作用对于基础设施的风险评估和规划非常重要。使用基于站点的降水，气温和露点温度的观测，我们表明，在大多数地区，降水极端随着当地温度的上升而增加。然而，极端降水与热带地区地面气温呈负相关，主要是由于季节性和相对湿度的影响。我们表明，露点温度是一个更强大的指示器，在降水极端的变化相比，地面空气温度。
Using global station-based observations of precipitation, near-surface air temperature (SAT), and dew point temperature (DPT), we show that the negative scaling relationship found between extreme daily precipitation and SAT over the tropics is associated with the low seasonality in temperature. When using a binning technique or quantile regression, not accounting for seasonality in temperature produces a negative scaling for the majority of stations in the tropics, with higher temperatures associated with smaller precipitation extremes. After removing temperature seasonality, we find that most locations show a positive (median 5.2%/K) scaling with SAT and 96% of global locations exhibit positive (median 6.1%/K) scaling with DPT. Moreover, about 33% (22%) of the locations show super C-C scaling (higher than 7%/K) with DPT (SAT). Our results show that the impact of warming on extreme precipitation (especially over the tropics) may be higher than previously thought.Plain Language Summary Extreme precipitation events have increased during the recent decades and are likely to increase under the warming climate. Understanding the role of changes in air temperature on extreme precipitation events is important for the risk assessment and planning of infrastructure. Using station-based observations of precipitation, air temperature, and dew point temperature, we show that precipitation extremes increase with the rise of local temperature in the majority of regions. However, precipitation extremes are negatively correlated with surface air temperature over the tropics mainly due to the effect of seasonality and relative humidity. We show that the dew point temperature is a more robust indicator of changes in precipitation extremes in comparison to surface air temperature.