Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam.
Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam.
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人类世适应的史前途径：来自越南红河三角洲的证据。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0280126
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Coward, Fiona
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rabett, Ryan J.;Morimoto, Risa;Kahlert, Thorsten;Stimpson, Christopher M.;O'Donnell, Shawn;Huong, Nguyen Thi Mai;Manh, Bui Van;Holmes, Rachael;Khanh, Pham Sinh;Van, Tran Tan;Coward, Fiona
在过去20年中，政府咨询机构越来越强调需要采取适应措施，应对人为气候变化的影响。综合评估模型（IAM），其中包括宏观经济和气候变量，在咨询内容中占有突出地位，虽然他们很少从严格限制的假设系统外部借鉴数据。这导致断言，他们是不适合近似复杂的系统性人类环境过程。模块化、跨学科的方法为解决这一缺陷提供了一种方法;然而，除了气候记录之外，在开发此类模型时，史前数据仍然没有得到充分利用。在本文中，我们强调了考古学和古生态学可以为下一代IAM的发展做出的贡献，这些IAM有望增强对未来气候变化的更多本地和主动适应的规定。我们目前的数据来自东南亚最发达的河流三角洲之一：红河（宋洪）三角洲，在越南和本地化的分析，从长安景观复杂的世界遗产，在三角洲的南部边缘。比较了共享社会经济路径（SSP）5-8.5和SSP 2 -4.5排放预测模型和红河流域中全新世洪水。我们强调的价值，采取科学的长远观点，通过一组说明性的八个研究重点，古数据可以带来新的和本地化的经验数据，以承担未来的风险管理规划的沿海演变。我们继续展示古环境，动物考古学和历史证据的适用性管理和可持续保护战略的发展，使用长安作为案例研究。在此过程中，我们进一步强调了科学、企业、非政府、地方和国家利益相关者之间知识交流的重要性，以在实地取得切实成果。
Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia’s most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta’s southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.5 and SSP2–4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.
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影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Blasco, F;Gauquelin, T;Caldairou, V
通讯作者：
Caldairou, V
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Batori, Zoltan;Vojtko, Andras;Keppel, Gunnar
通讯作者：
Keppel, Gunnar
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz;Bayr, Tobias;Latif, Mojib
通讯作者：
Latif, Mojib
DOI：
10.1080/21513732.2012.701667
发表时间：
2012-12-01
期刊：
International Journal of Biodiversity Science Ecosystem Services & Management
影响因子：
--
作者：
Birks, H. John B.
通讯作者：
Birks, H. John B.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Seddon AWR
通讯作者：
Seddon AWR