Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change
Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-015-1326-1
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发表时间：
2015-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Clark, Christopher M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Butcher, Jonathan B.;Nover, Daniel;Clark, Christopher M.
变暖导致的湖泊温度和混合制度的变化对美国湖泊和水库提供的水质和生态系统服务构成了风险。不同的物理和水文气候环境对响应的调制还没有被很好地理解。我们探索了气候变化对27个湖泊“原型”的潜在影响，这些原型代表了美国各地的一系列湖泊和水库。原型基于深度、表面积和水的清晰度的不同组合。应用一维动态热模拟模型LISSS对美国不同水文气候区的9个基线气候序列进行了湖泊对21世纪中叶多种变化情景的响应评估。结果表明，表层水温升高约为平均气温变化的77%。对于深水湖泊和将仲冬气温保持在冰点以下的地区，底部温度变化较小(约30%)。预计冰盖长度将显著减少，分层的程度和强度将在全美范围内增加，系统差异与深度、表面积和透明度有关。这些预测的反应表明，湖泊管理者可能会面临一系列未来的挑战。温度和混合动力的变化表明夏季缺氧条件和蓝藻水华的风险增加。夏季温跃层以上的水温升高可能会给许多湖泊的冷水渔业管理带来问题。气候引起的水平衡变化和营养物质的大量输入可能会进一步加剧湖泊对气候变化的脆弱性。
Warming-induced changes in lake thermal and mixing regimes present risks to water quality and ecosystem services provided by U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Modulation of responses by different physical and hydroclimatic settings are not well understood. We explore the potential effects of climate change on 27 lake "archetypes" representative of a range of lakes and reservoirs occurring throughout the U.S. Archetypes are based on different combinations of depth, surface area, and water clarity. LISSS, a one-dimensional dynamic thermal simulation model, is applied to assess lake response to multiple mid-21st century change scenarios applied to nine baseline climate series from different hydroclimatic regions of the U.S. Results show surface water temperature increases of about 77 % of increase in average air temperature change. Bottom temperature changes are less (around 30 %) for deep lakes and in regions that maintain mid-winter air temperatures below freezing. Significant decreases in length of ice cover are projected, and the extent and strength of stratification will increase throughout the U.S., with systematic differences associated with depth, surface area, and clarity. These projected responses suggest a range of future challenges that lake managers are likely to face. Changes in thermal and mixing dynamics suggest increased risk of summer hypoxic conditions and cyanobacterial blooms. Increased water temperatures above the summer thermocline could be a problem for cold water fisheries management in many lakes. Climate-induced changes in water balance and mass inputs of nutrients may further exacerbate the vulnerability of lakes to climate change.