A Cost-Effective and Transferable Methodology for Rooftop PV Potential Assessment in Developing Countries
A Cost-Effective and Transferable Methodology for Rooftop PV Potential Assessment in Developing Countries
复制标题
发展中国家屋顶光伏潜力评估的具有成本效益且可转移的方法
DOI：
10.3390/en13102501
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
W. Fichtner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Phuong Minh Khuong;R. McKenna;W. Fichtner
分散式太阳能屋顶光伏（PV）的有效吸收在某些情况下受到无效能源和政治框架条件的阻碍。这些可能基于太阳能市场早期发展阶段的不准确和不确定的潜力评估。本文为新兴经济体和发展中经济体开发了一个更准确，更具成本效益和强大的潜力评估。根据地区和家庭条件调整模块效率，提高了输出精度。模拟了不同的投入变化和政策设计，包括改变上网电价（FIT），上网电价和技术发展的屋顶光伏市场的变化。在案例研究中，越南的市场潜力估计为260-280 TWh/a，并按优先顺序分为六组，其中河内和胡志明最需要政策关注。将FIT从8.83欧分/kWh改为9欧分/kWh并使用不同的区域FIT可以激活额外16%的市场，并带来2800万欧元的收益。将电价提高到8.7美分/千瓦时可以激活自耗模式，在CAPEX和OPEX低于650欧元/千瓦时的情况下，可以保证自给自足的市场。该方法的未来发展应侧重于将这种自上而下的方法与详细的自下而上的方法相结合。
The efficient uptake of decentralized solar rooftop photovoltaics (PV) is in some cases hindered by ineffective energy and political framework conditions. These may be based on inaccurate and uncertain potential assessments in the early development stage of the solar market. This paper develops a more accurate, cost-effective, and robust potential assessment for emerging and developing economies. Adjusting the module efficiency corresponding to regional and household conditions improves the output accuracy. The rooftop PV market changes are simulated regarding different input changes and policy designs, including changing the Feed-In Tariff (FIT), grid tariff, and technology development. In the case study, the market potential in Vietnam is estimated at 260–280 TWh/a and is clustered into six groups in priority order, in which Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh need the most policy focus. Changing the FIT from 8.83 to 9 Euro cent/kWh and using different regional FITs can activate an additional 16% of the market and lead to a possible 28 million Euro benefit. Increasing the grid tariff to 8.7 cents/kWh could activate the self-consumption model, and the self-sufficient market can be guaranteed in the case of CAPEX and OPEX being lower than 650 Euro/kWp. Future developments of the method should focus on combining this top-down method with detailed bottom-up approaches.