Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?
Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?
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DOI：
10.1086/657428
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Smith, Leonard A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oreskes, Naomi;Stainforth, David A.;Smith, Leonard A.
科学专家已经证实，人为变暖正在发生，某种程度的适应现在是不可避免的。然而，对气候变化规模的影响的细节，人类必须准备和适应它们，仍然是大量研究、调查和辩论的主题。适应规划需要关于人类组织和机构拥有权威和能力的尺度的信息，然而一般环流模式在这些尺度上缺乏预测技能，而“缩小尺度”气候模式的尝试仍处于发展的早期阶段。因为我们不知道需要什么样的适应措施，所以我们不能说它们比控制排放更困难还是更容易——更昂贵还是更容易。无论未来地区预测能力有何提高，当前相关规模预测能力的缺乏，都是我们必须控制温室气体排放并做好适应准备的有力理由。
Scientific experts have confirmed that anthropogenic warming is underway, and some degree of adaptation is now unavoidable. However, the details of impacts on the scale of climate change at which humans would have to prepare for and adjust to them are still the subject of considerable research, inquiry, and debate. Planning for adaptation requires information on the scale over which human organizations and institutions have authority and capacity, yet the general circulation models lack forecasting skill at these scales, and attempts to "downscale" climate models are still in the early stages of development. Because we do not know what adaptations will be required, we cannot say whether they will be harder or easier-more expensive or less-than emissions control. Whatever improvements in regional predictive capacity may come about in the future, the lack of current predictive capacity on the relevant scale is a strong argument for why we must both control greenhouse gas emissions and prepare to adapt.