Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios
Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios
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DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2007.07.023
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发表时间：
2008-02-10
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Peters, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iverson, Louis R.;Prasad, Anantha M.;Peters, Matthew
我们使用预测数据挖掘工具Random Forests对美国东部的134种树种进行建模和映射，以应对气候变化的几种情况。每个物种单独建模，以显示当前和潜在的未来栖息地根据两个排放情景（高排放量的当前轨迹和合理的节能实施）和三个气候模型：并行气候模型，哈德利CM3模型，地球物理流体动力学实验室模型。由于我们对物种的潜在适宜栖息地进行了建模，因此我们的结果不应被解释为物种范围的实际变化。我们还评估了所有三个模型在“平均”未来气候下的两种排放情景。气候变化可能对美国东部树种的适宜栖息地产生巨大影响，特别是在高排放轨迹下。在134种物种中，约66种物种将在气候变化下获得至少10%的适宜栖息地，54种物种将失去至少10%的适宜栖息地。较低的排放途径将导致较低数量的输家和赢家。当评估当前和潜在未来栖息地的平均中心，即重心时，大多数物种栖息地通常向东北移动，在最热的情况下和最高的排放轨迹中可达800公里。这些模型表明，云冷杉区的撤退和南部橡树和松树的前进。无论如何，我们的研究结果表明，如果我们遵循温室气体排放量更低的道路，物种将有更小的压力来移动它们合适的栖息地。本文中包含的信息以及更多信息，详见我们的网站：http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas。由爱思唯尔公司出版
We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable conservation of energy implemented) and three climate models: the Parallel Climate Model, the Hadley CM3 model, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Since we model potential suitable habitats of species, our results should not be interpreted as actual changes in ranges of the species. We also evaluated both emission scenarios under an "average" future climate from all three models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Of the 134 species, approximately 66 species would gain and 54 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat under climate change. A lower emission pathway would result in lower numbers of both losers and gainers. When the mean centers, i.e. center of gravity, of current and potential future habitat are evaluated, most of the species habitat moves generally northeast, up to 800 km in the hottest scenario and highest emissions trajectory. The models suggest a retreat of the spruce-fir zone and an advance of the southern oaks and pines. In any case, our results show that species will have a lot less pressure to move their suitable habitats if we follow the path of lower emissions of greenhouse gases. The information contained in this; paper, and much more, is detailed on our website: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas. Published by Elsevier B.V.