Potential impact of climate change on solar resource in Africa for photovoltaic energy: analyses from CORDEX-AFRICA climate experiments
Potential impact of climate change on solar resource in Africa for photovoltaic energy: analyses from CORDEX-AFRICA climate experiments
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab500a
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Anquetin, Sandrine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bichet, Adeline;Hingray, Benoit;Anquetin, Sandrine
在遵守《巴黎协定》的同时，作为对快速增长的电力需求的回应，未来几十年非洲可再生电力的发展可能会非常庞大。本研究表明，在CORDEX-AFRICA的高分辨率气候实验中，由于太阳辐射的减少和空气表面温度的升高，预计到本世纪末，非洲大陆大部分地区的年平均太阳潜力将平均减少4%，在非洲之角地区将达到6%。这些预估与很大的不确定性有关，特别是在萨赫勒地区和东非高地。虽然预期的减少可能会影响未来几十年在非洲计划的众多太阳能项目的规模，但这项研究表明，这不会危及它们的生存能力。最后，本研究表明，此类项目的设计还需要考虑与资源相关的不可忽略的不确定性。
The development of renewable electricity in Africa could be massive in coming decades, as a response to the rapid rising electricity demand while complying with the Paris Agreements. This study shows that in the high-resolution climate experiments of CORDEX-AFRICA, the annual mean solar potential is expected to decrease on average by 4% over most of the continent by the end of the century, reaching up to 6% over the Horn of Africa, as a direct result of decrease in solar radiation and increase in air surface temperature. These projections are associated with large uncertainties, in particular over the Sahel and the elevated terrains of eastern Africa. While the expected decrease may affect the sizing of the numerous solar projects planned in Africa for the next decades, this study suggests that it does not endanger their viability. At last, this study indicates that the design of such projects also needs to account for the non-negligible uncertainties associated with the resource.