Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate
Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate
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DOI：
10.1623/hysj.53.4.754
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发表时间：
2008-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Kimoto, Masahide
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hirabayashi, Yukiko;Kanae, Shinjiro;Kimoto, Masahide
模拟日流量导出前一个相对高分辨率（约1.1度）的大气环流模式被用来调查在全球变暖下的河流流量极端的未来预测。除北美和欧亚大陆中部至西部地区外，预计许多地区的洪水频率将增加。据预测，全球干旱频率将增加，而北方高纬度地区、澳大利亚东部和欧亚大陆东部等地区的干旱频率将减少或没有显著变化。洪水和干旱的变化不能简单地用年降水量、强降水量或降水量和蒸散量之间的差异来解释。据预测，若干区域的水灾频率和旱灾频率都将增加。这些地区的降水日数减少，但大雨日数增加。一些地区的汛期从春季融雪期转变为夏季强降水期。
Simulated daily discharge derived front a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general Circulation model was used to investigate Future projections of extremes in river discharge Under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.