Endemicity response timelines for Plasmodium falciparum elimination.
Endemicity response timelines for Plasmodium falciparum elimination.
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-8-87
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发表时间：
2009-04-30
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Hay SI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith DL;Hay SI
扩大疟疾控制和再次呼吁消灭疟疾，使人们对确定疟疾流行情况变化的时间表产生了兴趣。恶性疟原虫寄生虫率（PfPR，感染的患病率）下降干预后的流行病学理论进行了严格审查，并在必要时扩展到考虑重叠感染，异质性叮咬，和老化感染。然后，利用各种备选数学模型，确定了在不同干预水平下控制和消除疟疾的时间表。分析重点关注从基线至1%和从1%至最终消除阶段的时间线。全球疟疾根除计划（GMEP）的规划采用了忽略重复感染的罗斯-麦克唐纳模型。在考虑重复感染的模型中，PfPR从高流行基线开始需要两到三年的时间才能达到1%，这与在非洲高流行性疟疾人群中进行的为数不多的大规模疟疾控制试验一致。消灭疟疾的时间从根本上取决于疟疾传播被阻断的程度和所模拟的人口规模。当PfPR下降到1%以下时，几乎所有的模型都预测PfPR在连续几年中从1%到消除的相似和成比例的下降，并且PfPR从10%降低到1%和从1%降低到0.1%的等待时间大致相等，但是如果感染衰老，衰减率会随着时间的推移而增加。本文所述的理论提供了简单的“经验法则”，以及控制和消除干预措施影响的可能时间范围。从高流行基线开始，基于传播完全中断的Ross-Macdonald模型的GMEP规划时间表不适合设定地方病时间表，它们代表了地方病较低地区最乐观的情景。从PfPR 1%到消除的基本时间表取决于人口规模和低水平传播。这些模型提供了一个理论基础，可以根据具体的控制和消除情景进一步调整。
The scaling up of malaria control and renewed calls for malaria eradication have raised interest in defining timelines for changes in malaria endemicity. The epidemiological theory for the decline in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR, the prevalence of infection) following intervention was critically reviewed and where necessary extended to consider superinfection, heterogeneous biting, and aging infections. Timelines for malaria control and elimination under different levels of intervention were then established using a wide range of candidate mathematical models. Analysis focused on the timelines from baseline to 1% and from 1% through the final stages of elimination. The Ross-Macdonald model, which ignores superinfection, was used for planning during the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP). In models that consider superinfection, PfPR takes two to three years longer to reach 1% starting from a hyperendemic baseline, consistent with one of the few large-scale malaria control trials conducted in an African population with hyperendemic malaria. The time to elimination depends fundamentally upon the extent to which malaria transmission is interrupted and the size of the human population modelled. When the PfPR drops below 1%, almost all models predict similar and proportional declines in PfPR in consecutive years from 1% through to elimination and that the waiting time to reduce PfPR from 10% to 1% and from 1% to 0.1% are approximately equal, but the decay rate can increase over time if infections senesce. The theory described herein provides simple "rules of thumb" and likely time horizons for the impact of interventions for control and elimination. Starting from a hyperendemic baseline, the GMEP planning timelines, which were based on the Ross-Macdonald model with completely interrupted transmission, were inappropriate for setting endemicity timelines and they represent the most optimistic scenario for places with lower endemicity. Basic timelines from PfPR of 1% through elimination depend on population size and low-level transmission. These models provide a theoretical basis that can be further tailored to specific control and elimination scenarios.
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影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Hay, Simon I.;Smith, David L.;Snow, Robert W.
通讯作者：
Snow, Robert W.
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Noor, Abdisalan M.;Mutheu, Juliette J.;Tatem, Andrew J.;Hay, Simon I.;Snow, Robert W.
通讯作者：
Snow, Robert W.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
HURLBERT, SH
通讯作者：
HURLBERT, SH
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2004.70.625
发表时间：
2004-06-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Sama, W;Killeen, G;Smith, T
通讯作者：
Smith, T
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Sama, W;Owusu-Agyei, S;Smith, T
通讯作者：
Smith, T