A clinical risk score for atrial fibrillation in a biracial prospective cohort (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study).
A clinical risk score for atrial fibrillation in a biracial prospective cohort (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study).
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amjcard.2010.08.049
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发表时间：
2011-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Alonso, Alvaro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chamberlain, Alanna M.;Agarwal, Sunil K.;Folsom, Aaron R.;Soliman, Elsayed Z.;Chambless, Lloyd E.;Crow, Richard;Ambrose, Marietta;Alonso, Alvaro
房颤的风险评分已由心脏研究开发;然而，该风险评分（来自白人）预测非白人新发房颤的适用性尚不确定。因此，我们使用来自社区动脉粥样硬化风险研究（一项美国黑人和白人前瞻性社区队列研究）的14，546名个体，使用临床实践中常用的风险因素制定了新发AF的10年风险评分。在10年的随访期间，发生了515起AF事件。房颤风险评分包括以下变量：年龄、种族、身高、吸烟状况、收缩压、高血压药物使用、心前区杂音、左心室肥大、左心房扩大、糖尿病、冠心病和心力衰竭。包括先前变量的考克斯回归模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）为0.78，表明具有中等程度的区分度。根据考克斯模型中的系数得出的基于点的评分的AUC为0.76。ARIC队列中AF的临床风险评分优于Fragrance心脏研究的AF（AUC=0.68）、CHD（AUC=0.63）和硬CHD（AUC=0.59）风险评分和ARIC CHD风险评分（AUC=0.58）。总之，我们已经开发了一种AF的风险评分，并且已经表明AF和CHD的不同病理生理限制了CHD风险评分在识别AF风险较高的个体方面的有用性。
A risk score for AF has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study; however the applicability of this risk score, derived from whites, to predict new-onset AF in non-whites is uncertain. Therefore, we developed a 10-year risk score for new-onset AF using risk factors commonly measured in clinical practice using 14,546 individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective community-based cohort of blacks and whites in the United States. During 10 years of follow-up, 515 incident AF events occurred. The following variables were included in the AF risk score: age, race, height, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, hypertension medication usage, precordial murmur, left ventricular hypertrophy, left atrial enlargement, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and heart failure. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of a Cox regression model including the previous variables was 0.78, suggesting moderately good discrimination. The point-based score developed from coefficients in the Cox model had an AUC of 0.76. This clinical risk score for AF in the ARIC cohort compared favorably with the Framingham Heart Study’s AF (AUC=0.68), CHD (AUC=0.63), and hard CHD (AUC=0.59) risk scores and the ARIC CHD risk score (AUC=0.58). In conclusion, we have developed a risk score for AF and have shown that the different pathophysiologies of AF and CHD limit the usefulness of a CHD risk score at identifying individuals at higher risk of AF.
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影响因子：
37.8
作者：
Wilson, PWF;D'Agostino, RB;Kannel, WB
通讯作者：
Kannel, WB
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Gronnesby, J K;Borgan, O
通讯作者：
Borgan, O
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Soliman EZ;Prineas RJ;Case LD;Zhang ZM;Goff DC Jr
通讯作者：
Goff DC Jr
影响因子：
7.2
作者：
Steyerberg, EW;Harrell, FE;Habbema, JDF
通讯作者：
Habbema, JDF
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Cleeman, JI;Grundy, SM;Murray, EZ
通讯作者：
Murray, EZ