STRATEGIES FOR ROAD NETWORK DESIGN OVER TIME: ROBUSTNESS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

STRATEGIES FOR ROAD NETWORK DESIGN OVER TIME: ROBUSTNESS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
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DOI：
10.1080/18128600508685642
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发表时间：
2005-01
期刊：
Transportmetrica
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
W. Y. Szeto;H. Lo
W. Y. Szeto;H. Lo
中科院分区：
--
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Y. Szeto;H. Lo

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长期规划道路网络改善往往面临不确定性。在资源有限的情况下，政府需要谨慎选择设计策略，以应对不确定性并实现其目标。通过敏感性分析，本文讨论了三种政府网络设计策略的社会和财务方面，即政府作为提供者（GP）、垄断市场（MM）和竞争市场（CM）。第一个是政府作为唯一的收费公路运营商，提供基础设施，但收取的通行费刚好足以收回成本。二是收费公路全部由私营部门按照建设-经营-转让的方式建设，并以垄断方式收取通行费。第三，政府允许多家运营商建设不同的收费公路，但按照建设-经营-转让计划以竞争性方式收取通行费。结果表明，尽管 GP 策略能够产生最佳的总折扣消费者剩余 (TDCS)，但维持成本回收可能是一个问题。另一方面，MM 策略很可能对运营商有利，但代价是生产的 TDCS 低得多。看来，在不确定性的情况下，CM 策略将在 TDCS 和盈利能力之间保持良好的平衡。这一发现与当前将政府服务私有化给多家公司的趋势是一致的。
Planning road network improvements over a long horizon often faces uncertainty. Under resource constraints, the government needs to carefully select a design strategy so as to cope with uncertainty and achieve its objective(s). Through sensitivity analyses, this paper discusses the social and financial aspects of three government's network design strategies, namely government-as-the-provider (GP), monopoly market (MM), and competitive market (CM). The first is the government acts as the sole toll road operator who provides the infrastructure but collects just enough tolls to recover costs. The second is the private sector builds all the toll roads based on the build-operate-transfer scheme and collects tolls in a monopoly manner. The third is the government allows multiple operators to build different toll roads but collect tolls under the build-operate-transfer scheme in a competitive manner. The results show that even though the GP strategy would produce the best total discounted consumer surplus (TDCS), maintaining cost recovery might be a problem. On the other hand, the MM strategy would mostly likely be profitable to the operators, at the expense of producing a much lower TDCS. It appears that the CM strategy would maintain a good balance between TDCS and profitability under uncertainty. This finding is consistent with the current trend of privatizing government services to multiple companies.