Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) - China, 2020
Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) - China, 2020
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DOI：
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.003
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发表时间：
2020-02-21
期刊：
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
McGoogan, Jennifer M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Zijian;Li, Qun;McGoogan, Jennifer M.
背景：中国湖北省武汉市爆发的2019年新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在全国范围内迅速蔓延。在这里，我们报告了截至2020年2月11日诊断的所有病例的描述性探索性分析结果。方法：截至2020年2月11日报告的所有COVID-19病例均来自中国传染病信息系统。分析包括以下内容：1）患者特征总结; 2）年龄分布和性别比检查; 3）病死率和死亡率计算; 4）病毒传播的地理时间分析; 5）流行病学曲线构建;以及6）亚组分析。共72，314例患者记录-44，672例（61.8%）确诊病例，16186例（22.4%）疑似病例、10,567例（14.6%）临床诊断病例（仅湖北省）和889例无症状病例（1.2%）--为分析提供了数据。确诊病例中，大多数年龄在30-79岁（86.6%），确诊地点在湖北（74.7%），病情较轻（80.9%）。确诊病例中共有1，023人死亡，总病死率为2.3%。2019冠状病毒病于2019年12月后的某个时候从湖北省向外传播，截至2020年2月11日，全国31个省份的1，386个县受到影响。症状发作的流行曲线在1月23日至26日达到峰值，然后开始下降，直至2月11日。共有1，716名卫生工作者被感染，5人死亡（0.3%）。结论：COVID-19疫情传播非常迅速，仅用30天就从湖北扩展到中国大陆其他地区。长假归来的人很多，中国需要做好疫情可能反弹的准备。
Background: An outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China has spread quickly nationwide. Here, we report results of a descriptive, exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed as of February 11, 2020.Methods: All COVID-19 cases reported through February 11, 2020 were extracted from China's Infectious Disease Information System. Analyses included the following: 1) summary of patient characteristics; 2) examination of age distributions and sex ratios; 3) calculation of case fatality and mortality rates; 4) geo-temporal analysis of viral spread; 5) epidemiological curve construction; and 6) subgroup analysis.Results: A total of 72,314 patient records-44,672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16,186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10,567 (14.6%) clinically diagnosed cases (Hubei Province only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)-contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30-79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild (80.9%). A total of 1,023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei Province sometime after December 2019, and by February 11, 2020, 1,386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked around January 23-26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1,716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%).Conclusions: COVID-19 epidemic has spread very quickly taking only 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China. With many people returning from a long holiday, China needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic.