Estimating lion population variables: prey and disease effects in Kruger National Park, South Africa
Estimating lion population variables: prey and disease effects in Kruger National Park, South Africa
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DOI：
10.1071/wr09030
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Funston, Paul J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferreira, Sam M.;Funston, Paul J.
上下文。狮子(Panthera Leo Linneeus，1758)种群经历了一系列影响其人口结构的生态和人类影响。很少有狮子种群对种群规模、趋势或人口结构有可靠的估计。因此，诸如疾病造成的威胁很难评估和应对。以校准征召站和去。为获得已知精度的估计，提取年龄结构和估计存活率，估计狮子数量、性别和年龄结构和存活率，然后评估牛结核病(BTB)对估计狮子密度和存活率的影响，需要进行新的调查工作。通过使用征召站，我们开发了一种统计稳健的方法来估计选定的种群变量，并评估了克鲁格国家公园不同猎物生物量的景观中BTB的感知威胁。狮子种群的数量是稳定的，尽管现在和历史估计之间的很长时间间隔限制了这一结论。密度和存活率与猎物生物量呈正相关，存活率与btb流行率呈正相关，btb流行率高的地区存活率较高。不考虑猎物生物量或BTB流行率的影响，雄性存活率低于雌性存活率。狮子的身体状况较高，低至中等捕食密度时得分较低。一种外来疾病对克鲁格狮子种群的影响目前可能可以忽略不计。狮子高密度生活区域的种内竞争会影响存活率。然而，干旱可能会扰乱猎物生物量和btb流行对狮子密度和存活率的分级影响。为了评估外来疾病对狮子人口学的影响，种群调查应包括年龄和性别结构评估，并辅之以对繁殖力的重点研究。这反映了了解宿主疾病动态为管理选择提供信息的重要性。
Context. Lion (Panthera leo Linnaeus, 1758) populations experience a range of ecological and human influences that affect their demography. Few lion populations have reliable estimates of population size, trends in these, or demographic profiles. Threats such as those imposed by diseases are thus hard to evaluate and respond to.Aims. To calibrate call-up stations and de. ne survey effort required to achieve estimates with known precision, and extract age structures and estimate survival rates, to estimate lion numbers, sex and age structure and survival rates, and then to evaluate the effect of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) on estimates of lion density and survival.Methods. By using call-up stations, we developed a statistically robust approach to estimate selected population variables and evaluated the perceived threat of bTB in landscapes of varying prey biomass in the Kruger National Park.Key results. The size of the lion population was stable, although long intervals between present and historical estimates limit this conclusion. Density and survival rates associated positively with prey biomass, and a positive association was detected between the survival rate and bTB prevalence, with survival being higher in areas that had high prevalence of bTB. Male survival was lower than female survival, disregarding the effects of prey biomass or bTB prevalence. Body condition of lions was high, with scores lower at low to medium prey density.Conclusions. The effect of an exotic disease on the Kruger lion population may be negligible at present. Intraspecific competition in areas where lions live at high densities affects survival rate. However, droughts could disrupt the hierarchical influences of prey biomass and bTB prevalence on lion densities and survival.Implications. To evaluate the effect of an exotic disease on lion demography, population surveys should include age- and sex-structure assessments, complemented with focal studies of fecundity. This reflects the importance of understanding host-disease dynamics to inform management options.