PARALLEL LONG-TERM TRENDS ACROSS 4 MARINE TROPHIC LEVELS AND WEATHER
PARALLEL LONG-TERM TRENDS ACROSS 4 MARINE TROPHIC LEVELS AND WEATHER
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DOI：
10.1038/347753a0
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发表时间：
1990-10-25
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
COLEBROOK, JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
AEBISCHER, NJ;COULSON, JC;COLEBROOK, JM
鉴于对痕量气体引起的气候变化的日益关注，对海洋生态系统组成部分的长期研究1 - 4所揭示的时间变化具有特别的相关性5。它们反映天气信号的程度直接关系到使用它们检测气候变化的有效性6 -8。我们在此报告四个系列的海洋数据和一个气候数据之间的趋势有着显著的相似性。该系列在时间上重叠了33年（1955年至1987年），在空间上重叠于北海西北象限。它们与浮游植物、浮游动物和鲱鱼（鲱鱼）的丰度、三趾鸥（里萨三趾鸥）的繁殖性能以及天气模式的变化有关。趋势平行背后的机制尚不清楚;一个主要的挑战是建立能够复制模式的食物网模型，从而用于解释和检测全球气候变化。
THE temporal changes revealed by long-term studies of components of the marine ecosystem1–4are of particular relevance given the growing concern about trace-gas-induced climatic change5. The extent to which they reflect the signal of weather relates directly to the validity of using them for detecting climatic change6–8. We report here on remarkable similarities in trends among four series of marine data and one of climatic data. The series overlap in time over 33 years (1955–1987), and in space over the northwestern quadrant of the North Sea. They relate to the abundances of phytoplankton, zooplankton and herring (Clupea harengus), to the breeding performance of the kittiwake gull (Rissa tridactyla), and to variations in weather pattern. The mechanisms behind the parallelism in trends remain unclear; a major challenge is to construct food-web models capable of reproducing the pattern and thereby of use in interpreting and detecting global climatic change.