Weights for general circulation models from CMIP3/CMIP5 in a statistical downscaling framework and the impact on future Mediterranean precipitation
Weights for general circulation models from CMIP3/CMIP5 in a statistical downscaling framework and the impact on future Mediterranean precipitation
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统计降尺度框架中 CMIP3/CMIP5 大气环流模型的权重及其对未来地中海降水的影响
DOI：
10.1002/joc.6045
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jacobeit J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaspar-Ott I;Hertig E;Kaspar S;Pollinger F;Ring C;Paeth H;Jacobeit J
本研究探讨了预测的降水量变化的世纪在地中海地区的模型集合的所有可用CMIP 3和CMIP 5数据的基础上四个不同的方案。模拟降水变化信号的大范围传播突出表明，需要对各个大气环流模型进行评估，以便对性能较好的模型给予较高的权重，对性能较差的模型给予较低的权重。模式的传播包括内部气候变率的一部分，但也是由于环流模式的不同技能。由后者产生的不确定性是我们加权方法的目的。每个权重都是基于在地中海降水的统计降尺度框架内模拟大中型大气环流模式背景下的关键预测变量的技能。因此，位势高度，海平面气压，大气层厚度，水平风分量和湿度数据在几个大气层被认为是。该度量的新奇在于避免将降水数据本身用于加权过程，因为最先进的模型在模拟降水方面仍然存在重大缺陷。在一些地中海次区域和季节中，将权重应用于尺度缩小的降水变化导致更可靠和更精确的变化信号。模型权重在子区域和季节之间存在差异，但是，从更好到更差的模型在地中海地区的降水表现的清晰顺序变得明显。
This study investigates the projected precipitation changes of the 21st century in the Mediterranean area with a model ensemble of all available CMIP3 and CMIP5 data based on four different scenarios. The large spread of simulated precipitation change signals underlines the need of an evaluation of the individual general circulation models in order to give higher weights to better and lower weights to worse performing models. The models' spread comprises part of the internal climate variability, but is also due to the differing skills of the circulation models. The uncertainty resulting from the latter is the aim of our weighting approach. Each weight is based on the skill to simulate key predictor variables in context of large and medium scale atmospheric circulation patterns within a statistical downscaling framework for the Mediterranean precipitation. Therefore, geopotential heights, sea level pressure, atmospheric layer thickness, horizontal wind components and humidity data at several atmospheric levels are considered. The novelty of this metric consists in avoiding the use of the precipitation data by itself for the weighting process, as state‐of‐the‐art models still have major deficits in simulating precipitation. The application of the weights on the downscaled precipitation changes leads to more reliable and precise change signals in some Mediterranean sub‐regions and seasons. The model weights differ between sub‐regions and seasons, however, a clear sequence from better to worse models for the representation of precipitation in the Mediterranean area becomes apparent.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
F. Boberg;P. Berg;P. Thejll;W. Gutowski;J. Christensen
通讯作者：
F. Boberg;P. Berg;P. Thejll;W. Gutowski;J. Christensen
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
J. Jacobeit;E. Hertig;S. Seubert;K. Lutz
通讯作者：
J. Jacobeit;E. Hertig;S. Seubert;K. Lutz
每日和每月的温度和降水统计数据作为区域气候模型的性能指标。
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
E. Kjellström;F. Boberg;M. Castro;J. Christensen;G. Nikulin;E. Sánchez
通讯作者：
E. Sánchez
模型加权可以改善气候变化的概率预测吗？
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
J. Räisänen;J. Ylhäisi
通讯作者：
J. Ylhäisi
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Xoplaki, E;González-Rouco, JF;Wanner, H
通讯作者：
Wanner, H