Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City
Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0408290102
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发表时间：
2005-08-02
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Morse, SS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Olson, DR;Simonsen, L;Morse, SS
1918年的“西班牙流感”是有记录以来传播最快、最致命的流感大流行。对其起源的假设是基于1918年夏季在欧洲被确认出现之前的病例和暴发报告的有限收集。然而，这些轶事报道仍然不足以确定大流行病毒的早期传播和影响。使用常规收集的每月年龄分层死亡数据，我们表明，在1917/1918年纽约市流感季节期间，流行病死亡人数的年龄分布发生了明确的转变。这一死亡率转变的时间、规模和年龄分布提供了强有力的证据，表明1918年2-4月期间纽约市出现了大流行病毒的早期浪潮。
The 1918 "Spanish flu" was the fastest spreading and most deadly influenza pandemic in recorded history. Hypotheses of its origin have been based on a limited collection of case and outbreak reports from before its recognized European emergence in the summer of 1918. These anecdotal accounts, however, remain insufficient for determining the early diffusion and impact of the pandemic virus. Using routinely collected monthly age-stratified mortality data, we show that an unmistakable shift in the age distribution of epidemic deaths occurred during the 1917/1918 influenza season in New York City. The timing, magnitude,and age distribution of this mortality shift provide strong evidence that an early wave of the pandemic virus was present in New York City during February-April 1918.