Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information
Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information
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DOI：
10.1098/rspa.2019.0013
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发表时间：
2019-05-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Shepherd, Theodore G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shepherd, Theodore G.
气候科学试图对已经发生的事情和将要发生的事情（取决于情景）做出自信的陈述。这种方法对于气候变化的全球热力学方面是有效的，但是对于与大气环流有关的气候变化方面是无效的，这是高度不确定的。然而，在区域尺度上，大气环流对气候影响具有强烈的调节作用。通过这种方式，专注于避免类型1错误（假警报）的信任框架提高了提交类型2错误（错过警告）的可能性。这涉及伦理问题。然而，在区域尺度上，关于气候变化的信息必须与影响脆弱性和暴露的许多其他因素结合起来——其中大部分是高度不确定的——与社会相关的问题不是“会发生什么？”，而是“在不确定的区域气候变化下，特定行动的影响是什么？”如果能够区分认知不确定性和任意不确定性——这在气候预测中通常是不被做的——这种问题的重构可以解决区域气候变化信息的棘手问题。有人认为，气候变化的故事情节方法——识别物理上自洽的、合理的途径——有可能实现这一目标。
Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way, the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure-most of which are highly uncertain-the societally relevant question is not 'What will happen?' but rather 'What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?' This reframing of the question can cut the Gordian knot of regional climate change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties-something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change-the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has the potential to accomplish precisely this.