Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 ad
Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 ad
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2
复制
发表时间：
2010-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Jevrejeva, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grinsted, Aslak;Moore, J. C.;Jevrejeva, S.
我们使用物理上合理的四参数线性响应方程来关联 2000 年来的全球温度和海平面。我们使用蒙特卡洛反演来估计方程参数的似然分布，从而可以可视化过去和未来的海平面情景。该模型在 1990 年之前进行校准并根据卫星测高的海平面上升率进行验证时具有良好的预测能力。未来海平面是根据政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 温度情景预测的，过去海平面是根据已建立的多代理重建预测的，假设温度和海平面之间的既定关系在公元 200 年至 2100 年保持不变。在过去的 2000 年里，最低海平面（-19 至 -26 厘米）出现在公元 1730 年左右，最高海平面（12-21 厘米）出现在公元 1150 年左右。对于 A1B 情景，2090-2099 年海平面预计为 0.9 至 1.3 m，上升幅度在 IPCC 置信区间内的可能性很小。
We use a physically plausible four parameter linear response equation to relate 2,000 years of global temperatures and sea level. We estimate likelihood distributions of equation parameters using Monte Carlo inversion, which then allows visualization of past and future sea level scenarios. The model has good predictive power when calibrated on the pre-1990 period and validated against the high rates of sea level rise from the satellite altimetry. Future sea level is projected from intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) temperature scenarios and past sea level from established multi-proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (-19 to -26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12-21 cm) around 1150 ad. Sea level 2090-2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B scenario, with low probability of the rise being within IPCC confidence limits.