A TEST ON META-SYNTHESIS SYSTEM APPROACH TO FORECASTING THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN CHINA
A TEST ON META-SYNTHESIS SYSTEM APPROACH TO FORECASTING THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN CHINA
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发表时间：
2003
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通讯作者：
J. Gu;Xijin J. Tang
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作者：
J. Gu;Xijin J. Tang
摘要综合集成方法是我国科学家钱学森提出的一种处理复杂、开放、巨系统的方法。和他的同事在90年代初。它强调对收集到的信息和各类专家知识的综合，将定量方法与定性知识相结合。后来它演变成综合集成工程研讨厅（HWMSE），强调利用信息技术的突破性进展。1999年，国家自然科学基金委员会批准了一个为期4年的重大项目，致力于实现宏观经济决策的HWMSE的试点原型。我们参与了这个项目。针对本课题所关注的宏观经济学问题，我们设计了一个从定性到定量的综合集成系统方法的实现流程图。该流程图的主要思想包括三个阶段：同步会议I;异步分析;同步会议II。今年1月对2003年中国GDP增长率预测进行了检验。本文给出了检验的步骤，并将相应的工具应用于GDP增长预测的各个阶段。通过试验，可以清楚地反映出综合集成方法和综合集成系统工程的三个主要组成部分：专家系统、知识系统和机器系统，并取得了一定的实践经验。关键词：综合集成方法，HWMSE，宏观经济学
ABSTRACT Meta-synthesis method is proposed to tackle with complex, open and giant systems by Chinese scientists Qian, X.S. and his colleagues around the start of 1990s. It emphasizes the synthesis of collected information and knowledge of various kinds of experts, and connecting quantitative methods with qualitative knowledge. Later it is evolved into Hall of Workshop for Meta-Synthetic Engineering (HWMSE), which emphasizes to make use of breaking advances in information technologies. In 1999, Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) approved a 4-year major project engaging to implement a pilot prototype for HWMSE for macroeconomic decision making. We participate in this project. For the concerned problem in macroeconomics in this project, we have designed a flowchart for realizing the meta-synthesis system approach from qualitative to quantitative. The main ideas of this flowchart consists of three phases; synchronous meeting I; asynchronous analysis; synchronous meeting II. This January a test was taken to the forecasting of GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of China in 2003. In this paper, the procedure of the test is given with relevant tools applied to each phase of the GDP growth forecasting. From this test, three systems of the main parts of HWMSE, expert system, knowledge system and machine system are clearly reflected where some experiences have been practically acquired about applying meta-synthesis approach and HWMSE. Keywords: meta-synthesis approach, HWMSE, macro economics