Self-selection bias in estimating the determinants of landowners' Re-enrollment decisions in forest incentive programs
Self-selection bias in estimating the determinants of landowners' Re-enrollment decisions in forest incentive programs
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107109
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发表时间：
2021-10
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Y. Mitani;H. Shimada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Mitani;H. Shimada
尽管近年来越来越受到关注，但只有有限数量的研究调查了土地所有者在保护激励计划中重新登记意愿的决定因素。然而，这些研究都没有控制参与者潜在的自我选择。对自我选择偏差的关注与政策相关，因为研究人员和政策制定者调查重新注册的决定因素不仅是为了预测参与者的保留率，也是为了促进保护计划的长期成功。本文利用日本森林激励计划中符合条件的土地所有者（包括参与者和非参与者）的数据，通过控制丰富的可观察土地所有者属性，并通过对再登记决策和参与决策共同建模来确定未观察到的参与者属性，来研究参与者再登记决策的决定因素。实证结果表明，单独再招生模型的无条件边际效应存在选择偏差，低估了12%至48%的效应。结果还表明，吸引土地所有者参与的可观察因素也倾向于鼓励参与者留在该计划中。这意味着旨在增加初始参与率的干预措施也可能增加重新登记。
Despite increasing attention in recent years, only a limited number of studies have investigated the determinants of landowner re-enrollment intentions in conservation incentive programs. However, none of these studies controlled for the potential self-selection of participants. The concern for a self-selection bias is policy relevant because researchers and policymakers investigate the determinants of re-enrollment not only to predict the retention rate of participants but also to promote the long-term success of conservation programs. This paper uses data on eligible landowners, consisting of both participants and non-participants, from a forest incentive program in Japan to examine the determinants of the participants' re-enrollment decision, controlling for a rich set of observable landowner attributes, and conditioning on the unobserved participants' attributes which are identified by modeling the re-enrollment decision jointly with the decision to participate. The empirical results indicate that the unconditional marginal effects from the separate re-enrollment model are biased by selection and underestimate the effects by between 12% and 48%. The results also show that the observable factors that attract landowners to participate also tend to encourage participants to remain in the program. This implies that interventions directed at increasing initial participation are also likely to increase re-enrollment.