Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data
Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data
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预期和经济波动：使用调查数据进行分析
DOI：
10.1162/rest_a_00374
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Keith Sill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Leduc;Keith Sill
利用利文斯顿调查（Livingston Survey）和专业预测者调查（Survey of Professional forecasts）对未来美国经济活动的基于调查的测量，我们研究了预期的变化及其与货币政策的相互作用如何导致宏观经济总量的波动。我们发现，预期未来经济活动的变化在数量上是经济波动的重要驱动因素：对未来美好时光的看法通常会导致当前经济活动和通货膨胀指标的显著上升。我们还发现，随着货币政策收紧，短期利率会随着对好日子的预期而上升。
Abstract Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations and their interaction with monetary policy contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. We also find that the short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens.