Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations
Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations
复制标题
使用预期数据研究主观收入预期
DOI：
10.1080/01621459.1997.10474041
复制
发表时间：
1994
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Charles F. Manski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Dominitz;Charles F. Manski
摘要我们在我们的经济预期调查中收集了美国家庭成员未来一年收入预期的数据，这是威斯康星大学进行的全国连续电话调查的一个模块。收入预期问题的形式是这样的：“你认为在接下来的12个月里，你的家庭税前总收入低于Y的可能性有多大？”我们使用对不同收入门槛Y提出的一系列这样的问题的回答来估计每个受访者对明年家庭收入的主观概率分布。我们使用这些估计来研究未来一年收入预期的横截面变化。我们发现，未来收入的估计主观四分位数范围(IQR)倾向于随着估计的主观中位数的增加而上升，但速度慢于比例。不同受试者的主观IQR估计有很大差异。
Abstract We have collected data on the one-year-ahead income expectations of members of American households in our survey of economic expectations (SEE), a module of a national continuous telephone survey conducted at the University of Wisconsin. The income-expectations questions take this form: “What do you think is the percent chance (or what are the chances out of 100) that your total household income, before taxes, will be less than Y over the next 12 months?” We use the responses to a sequence of such questions posed for different income thresholds Y to estimate each respondent's subjective probability distribution for next year's household income. We use the estimates to study the cross-sectional variation in income expectations one year into the future. We find that the estimated subjective interquartile range (IQR) of future income tends to rise with the estimated subjective median, but more slowly than proportionately. There is substantial variation in the estimated subjective IQR among responden...