Relative economic competitiveness of light-duty battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles
Relative economic competitiveness of light-duty battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trc.2018.01.005
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Joseck, Fred
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morrison, Geoff;Stevens, John;Joseck, Fred
本文估算了从现在到2040年电池电动汽车(BEV)和氢燃料电池电动汽车(FCEV)的成本，以探索每种车型的潜在市场规模。执行两个主要任务。首先，根据行驶里程和尺寸等级，估算了77个轻型车辆(LDV)细分市场的总拥有成本(TCO)，包括车辆购买、燃料、维护、转售和加油不便。其次，关于个人出行行为的数据被用来估计77个细分市场中每一个细分市场中的车主比例。到2020年，据估计，在79%-97%的LDV车队中，BEV是更便宜的车辆选择，在所有车辆细分市场和司机中，BEV的加权平均成本优势比FCEV每英里低0.41美元。然而，这两种动力系统的成本在2025年至2030年之间迅速趋同。据估计，到2040年，在大约71%-88%的LDV车队中，FCEV每英里的价格将低于BEV，并且在更大的车辆类别和每日行驶里程更长的司机中具有显著的成本优势。这一分析表明，FCEV和BEV都有竞争的市场空间，以满足LDV消费者的不同需求。
This paper estimates battery electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) costs from today through 2040 to explore the potential market size of each vehicle type. Two main tasks are performed. First, the total cost of ownership (TCO) - including vehicle purchase, fuel, maintenance, resale, and refueling inconvenience - is estimated for 77 light-duty vehicle (LDV) segments, defined by driving range and size class. Second, data on individual travel behavior is used to estimate the fraction of vehicle owners within each of the 77 segments. In 2020, BEVs are estimated to be the cheaper vehicle option in 79-97 percent of the LDV fleet and have a weighted average cost advantage of $0.41 per mile below FCEVs across all vehicle segments and drivers. However, costs of the two powertrains quickly converge between 2025 and 2030. By 2040, FCEVs are estimated to be less expensive than BEVs per mile in approximately 71-88 percent of the LDV fleet and have notable cost advantages within larger vehicle size classes and for drivers with longer daily driving ranges. This analysis demonstrates a competitive market space for both FCEVs and BEVs to meet the different needs of LDV consumers.