Insights into carsharing demand dynamics: Outputs of an agent-based model application to Lisbon, Portugal
Insights into carsharing demand dynamics: Outputs of an agent-based model application to Lisbon, Portugal
复制标题
洞察汽车共享需求动态：葡萄牙里斯本基于代理的模型应用程序的输出
DOI：
10.1080/15568318.2016.1226997
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
M. Mendes Lopes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Martinez;G. Correia;Filipe Moura;M. Mendes Lopes
汽车共享系统的两个重要诉求是其增加的灵活性和减少交通外部性（如污染）的潜在贡献。汽车共享通常包括在一个城市的各个车站提供车队，客户可以按小时付费使用这些车队。经典的往返系统解决了购物和跑腿旅行的利基市场。然而，为客户提供单程旅行的市场正在不断增长。考虑到供需之间的复杂关系，以及这可能如何影响所提供的服务水平，这种类型的汽车共享的经济可行性仍然存在很大的不确定性。现实的建模工具，包括供需特征，并允许测试几个汽车共享操作参数是稀缺的。在这个意义上，开发了一个详细的基于智能体的模型来模拟单向汽车共享系统。该仿真结合了时间和空间离散化的随机需求模型和具有真实旅行时间的详细环境特征。该行动包括维修、搬迁和保留。该模型应用于里斯本市的案例研究。我们的研究结果表明，与其他模式相比，汽车共享在时间和成本上都不如私家车。尽管如此，它在成本上明显优于出租车，在出行时间上优于公交车、地铁和步行。拼车的竞争力很大程度上取决于出行时间，随着出行时间的延长，拼车的竞争力会比其他模式更强（就出行时间而言）。车队搬迁及预约车辆等营运政策在提高利润的同时，亦能保持良好的顾客满意度。
ABSTRACT Two important claims for carsharing systems are their increased flexibility and potential contribution to reducing transport externalities such as pollution. Carsharing typically involves a fleet of vehicles in stations around a city that clients may use on an hourly-payment basis. Classical round-trip systems address a niche market of shopping and errand trips. However, a growing market is now arising providing one-way trips to clients. Great uncertainty remains on the economic viability of this type of carsharing given the complex relation between supply and demand, and how this may influence the level of service provided. Realistic modeling tools that include both supply and demand characterization and allow testing several carsharing operational parameters are scarce. In this sense, a detailed agent-based model was developed to simulate one-way carsharing systems. The simulation incorporates a stochastic demand model discretized in time and space and a detailed environment characterization with realistic travel times. The operation includes maintenance operations, relocations and reservations. The model was applied to the case-study city of Lisbon. Our results show that comparing to other modes, carsharing performs worse than private cars both in terms of time and cost. Nevertheless, it clearly outperforms taxis in terms of cost, and outperforms buses, metro and walking in terms of travel time. The competitiveness of carsharing is highly determined by trip length, becoming more competitive than other modes (travel-time wise) as trips become longer. The operational policies as car-fleet relocation and car reservation showed significant effects in enhancing profit while preserving good customers' satisfaction.