Roles of Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: A Case Study for Thailand
Roles of Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: A Case Study for Thailand
复制标题
通货膨胀目标制下汇率在货币政策中的作用：以泰国为例
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kessarin Tansuwanarat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chayawadee Chai;Runchana Pongsaparn;Kessarin Tansuwanarat
本文讨论了通货膨胀目标制（IT）制度下汇率在货币政策中的作用，特别关注泰国。分析将考察汇率作为货币政策传导机制渠道的作用、其作为减震器的作用以及在缓解通胀压力方面发挥额外作用的可能性。为了研究这些问题，本文主要采用小型结构模型，结合其他统计和计量经济学技术来捕捉汇率与其他宏观经济变量之间的关系。分析结果表明，除了信息技术下的常规作用外，汇率只有在特定情况下才能发挥额外的缓解通胀压力的作用。研究结果表明，汇率管理对降低通货膨胀的影响是迅速而短暂的，而对产出的影响较小，但比使用利率政策更持久。因此，利用汇率抑制通胀只适用于暂时性通胀冲击的情况。然而，它也受到限制。通过外汇干预进行汇率管理的有效性，即可控程度，是一个值得关注的问题。此外，长期干预还会扭曲资源配置，延缓实体经济结构调整。
This paper addresses the roles of exchange rate in monetary policy under inflation targeting (IT) regime, with a particular focus on Thailand. The analysis will examine the role of exchange rate as a channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism, its role as a shock absorber and the plausibility of an additional role in mitigating inflationary pressure. To investigate these issues, the paper primarily employs a Small Structural Model to capture the relationship between the exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables, in conjunction with other statistical and econometric techniques. The analytical results indicate that, besides its conventional roles under IT, the exchange rate could take on an additional role in alleviating inflationary pressure only under specific circumstances. The finding suggests that the impact of exchange rate management in bringing down inflation is rapid and short-lived, while the impact on output is smaller but more long-lasting than the use of interest rate policy. Thus, the use of exchange rate in curbing inflation is only appropriate in the case of temporary inflation shock. It is, however, subject to limitations. The effectiveness of exchange rate management via foreign exchange intervention, i.e. the degree of controllability, is an important concern. Moreover, prolonged intervention can also distort resource allocation and delay structural adjustments of the real economy.
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
CHINO;Tetsuro;Eiji Fujii;藤井英次
通讯作者：
藤井英次