Is Evolution in Response to Extreme Events Good for Population Persistence?
Is Evolution in Response to Extreme Events Good for Population Persistence?
复制标题
针对极端事件的进化有利于种群的持续存在吗？
DOI：
10.1086/714419
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Schreiber, Sebastian J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lyberger, Kelsey P.;Osmond, Matthew M.;Schreiber, Sebastian J.
气候变化预计将增加环境扰动的严重程度，包括风暴和干旱，这些因素起到了很强的选择性作用。这些极端事件通常具有有限的持续时间(脉冲干扰)。因此，虽然极端事件期间的进化可能是适应性的，但当事件结束时，由此产生的表型变化可能变得不适应性。使用基于个体的模型和融合了数量遗传学和人口学的分析近似，我们探索了在固定持续时间的极端事件下，遗传率和表型变异如何影响有限种群的种群规模和灭绝风险。由于更多的进化导致极端事件后更大的适应不良和更慢的种群恢复，当极端事件很短时，更大的遗传力可能会增加灭绝风险。或者，当极端事件持续时间足够长时，遗传性通常会帮助一个群体持续下去。我们还发现，当事件严重时，表型变异的缓冲效应可以超过它所造成的增加的负载。
Climate change is predicted to increase the severity of environmental perturbations, including storms and droughts, which act as strong selective agents. These extreme events are often of finite duration (pulse disturbances). Hence, while evolution during an extreme event may be adaptive, the resulting phenotypic changes may become maladaptive when the event ends. Using individual-based models and analytic approximations that fuse quantitative genetics and demography, we explore how heritability and phenotypic variance affect population size and extinction risk in finite populations under an extreme event of fixed duration. Since more evolution leads to greater maladaptation and slower population recovery following an extreme event, greater heritability can increase extinction risk when the extreme event is short. Alternatively, when an extreme event is sufficiently long, heritability often helps a population persist. We also find that when events are severe, the buffering effect of phenotypic variance can outweigh the increased load it causes.