Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England.
Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep29004
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发表时间：
2016-07-11
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
De Angelis D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Birrell PJ;Zhang XS;Pebody RG;Gay NJ;De Angelis D
了解人口的地理分布和流动如何影响感染的空间传播，对于设计遏制传播的干预措施至关重要。现有的知识通常是基于模拟研究的结果，而对真实的数据的分析仍然很少。量化疾病传播的空间模式的主要困难是缺乏可用的数据，以及将有限的信息最佳地纳入疾病传播模型的挑战。为了应对这一挑战的作用，在2009年大流行性流感在英格兰的流行期间，常规迁移的空间模式的感染在这里通过两种建模方法进行了研究：平行区域模型，假设在不同地区的流行病发生在隔离与共享的特性;和元区域模型，区域间的传输表示为一个功能的通勤流量区域之间。结果突出表明，计算要求低得多的并行区域方法是足够灵活的，以捕捉潜在的动态。这表明，区域间流动的特点要么是现有通勤数据不准确，要么是一旦其对传播的最初影响消退后就微不足道。
Understanding how the geographic distribution of and movements within a population influence the spatial spread of infections is crucial for the design of interventions to curb transmission. Existing knowledge is typically based on results from simulation studies whereas analyses of real data remain sparse. The main difficulty in quantifying the spatial pattern of disease spread is the paucity of available data together with the challenge of incorporating optimally the limited information into models of disease transmission. To address this challenge the role of routine migration on the spatial pattern of infection during the epidemic of 2009 pandemic influenza in England is investigated here through two modelling approaches: parallel-region models, where epidemics in different regions are assumed to occur in isolation with shared characteristics; and meta-region models where inter-region transmission is expressed as a function of the commuter flux between regions. Results highlight that the significantly less computationally demanding parallel-region approach is sufficiently flexible to capture the underlying dynamics. This suggests that inter-region movement is either inaccurately characterized by the available commuting data or insignificant once its initial impact on transmission has subsided.