Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending in China
Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending in China
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DOI：
10.1111/1468-0106.12242
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发表时间：
2019-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xin Wang;Y. Wen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xin Wang;Y. Wen
政府支出在决定中国经济绩效方面发挥着重要作用。本文分析了其宏观经济效应。我们发现，在中国政府支出（i）格兰杰原因的产出，消费和投资繁荣以及通货膨胀和（ii）有一个乘数大于1。乘数效应不仅存在于总量数据中，也存在于省级面板数据中。我们还提供了一个理论模型和蒙特卡罗分析，合理化我们的实证研究结果。我们的理论和蒙特卡洛分析支持在中国发现的大乘数，但也表明，政府支出不一定是免费的午餐，尽管大乘数效应。
Government spending plays an important role in determining economic performances in China. Its macroeconomic effects are analyzed in this paper. We show that government spending in China (i) Granger-causes output, consumption and investment booms as well as inflation and (ii) has a multiplier larger than 1. The large multiplier effects are found not only in aggregate time-series data but also in panel data at the provincial level. We also provide a theoretical model and Monte Carlo analysis to rationalize our empirical findings. Our theoretical and Monte Carlo analyses support the large multiplier found in China but also suggests that government spending is not necessarily a free lunch in spite of the large multiplier effects.